MNF Plays: Best Props for Monday Night Football, Week 12

FTN Staff

Week 12 caps off with an NFC North matchup, where a rejuvenated Minnesota Vikings team tries to keep their momentum going after a 5-1 run over the past six weeks. Minnesota hosts a Bears team with Justin Fields back under center, coming off a narrow Week 11 loss at division-leading Detroit.

Here is my favorite prop bet for this week’s Monday night matchup.

DJ Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

(-110, Bet365)

There is a substantial difference between DJ Moore’s production with and without quarterback Justin Fields under center.

Per our FTN splits tool, Moore has seen an astonishing 84% increase in his receiving yards with Fields over the past two years.

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In those seven games, Moore has tallied 1.6 more receptions and a massive nine-point increase in PPR production. Minnesota’s defense ranks inside the top-10 in DVOA but allowed Moore to approach this number (51 receiving yards) in their Week 6 matchup with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent under center. Moore is a superior yards-after-the-catch receiver, ranking third among all wideouts. With Fields back as quarterback, I’m very comfortable backing this over Monday night.

Our FTN Bets Model has Moore projected for 69.5 receiving yards, equating to a 5.3% betting edge. Moore has seen nine or more targets in five of the last eight Chicago games, and eight or more targets in six of those matchups. Let’s go back to the Moore-Fields connection in this NFC North matchup.