NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s the eve of the last night of NBA In-Season Tournament group, so most teams are not playing. This allows them to get at least one night’s rest before their final chance to win their group or grow their point differential in the hopes of making the wild card.
Although this leaves us with a small slate Monday, we have at least one marquee game and a few interesting matchups. Teams are back from their Thanksgiving break and headed into an important four weeks before Christmas. This is when teams begin to seriously evaluate their teams and what might be best course when the trade deadline approaches. Let’s see where we might find value in the NBA betting markets when most might be distracted by Monday Night Football. Of course, since it’s Monday you can find a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. On to the basketball.
NBA Best Bets for Monday
Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers
Current Line – 76ers -6, 231
My Projection – 76ers 116, Lakers 111
Key Injuries – Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura are out. LeBron James is questionable.
This rematch of the 1980, 1982, 1983 and 2001 NBA Finals certainly doesn’t have the cache of those past games, but it should still be a great basketball game. LeBron is questionable, but he’s always questionable and plays anyway. I certainly don’t expect that to change against one of the better teams in the league. Both teams have some schedule spot concerns, but the disadvantages are even between them. Los Angeles is in the middle of a four-game road trip and have a back-to-back set of games following this. Philadelphia is home for one night after a two-game road trip and before another two-gamer. If there is some fatigue, it should be equal for both squads, and I expect both to be locked into playing their best to win this game. It could even have a playoff atmosphere, which generally means slower pace as teams grind out possessions in a close contest. That’s a great recipe for an under that my model likes as well. I project this game at 227 points and the expected game stat lines up nicely as well. I’m betting under 231 points, but there is also a player prop over I like. Tyrese Maxey should feast tonight against a Lakers team devoid of defensively talented guards. There may not be a lot of possessions for Maxey to score, but his efficiency should be high enough to get him to 30 and even 35 points.
Bets
Lakers/76ers Under 231 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points (+165, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.75U)
Tyrese Maxey 35+ Points (+460, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.25U)
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons
Current Line – Pistons -2.5, 236
My Projection – Pistons 119, Wizards 114
Key Injuries – Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Harris are out. Jordan Poole is questionable.
What’s more fun than laying points with a bad basketball team? Honestly, a lot of things, but try to keep an open mind as I explain why we’re going to back the Detroit Pistons as favorites in an NBA basketball game. Let’s start with their opponent, the Washington Wizards, who have lost nine games in a row, are playing their third game in four nights and will be playing their fifth consecutive game after traveling. Those Wizards are competing with the San Antonio Spurs for worst roster in the NBA this season. It’s bad that I’m not sure Jordan Poole being out even helps things given who his replacement will be. Daniel Gafford is back, but they still lack size and somehow also lack athleticism on defense. They score a lot of points, but that’s because they shoot the ball a lot and they almost never score more points than their opponents. Now, I realize Washington currently has the same record at 2-14 as Detroit, but the Pistons have played a tougher schedule and most of it without their center, Jalen Duren, who raises their defense significantly and provides Cade Cunningham with the pick and roll threat he needs. Detroit comes into this game with a weekend of rest and a fairly clean injury report. I also believe the Pistons may actually be trying to win games where the Wizards have been clearly tanking at the end of their games. I have Detroit as five-point favorites and love this spot for them. Let’s hold our noses and eat some stinky Pistons -2.5 cheese.
Bet
Detroit Pistons -2.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook or BetMGM)
Not For Noops – Quick Thoughts on Games I’m Not Betting
Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers -12.5, 240
This is a tough game to handicap. Indiana clearly deserves to be a big favorite, but this is the last game before a six-game road trip that starts with two games in Miami. Will they keep their foot on the gas in the fourth quarter or sit their best players and be happy to win regardless of margin? My projections like the under, but I’m not betting the under in a Pacers game. Their opponents and they have been scoring points in near record numbers. You guys know I love Portland team total unders, but I can’t even bet that tonight. I’m passing all around here.
New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz +6, 230
No Lauri Markkanen means no betting on the Utah Jazz, although this is a great spot to fade the Pelicans. New Orleans is at the end of a road trip and playing their seventh game in 11 nights before returning home with a game against the Philadelphia 76ers. It’s a good matchup for New Orleans, but it’s hard to know how focused they’ll be and how tired their legs might be at the end of a grueling stretch in their schedule.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers -7.5, 219
Aaron Gordon and Jamaal Murray are out. Nikola Jokic is questionable. If Jokic is out, this line likely gets to double digits and that seems to be the way it’s headed. If Jokic is in, the line will shorten, but the Clippers will still be favorites and I may back them if it gets into the -3 range. There’s nothing we can do until we know Jokic’s status. I also like under if he’s not playing as well. Follow the #nba-plays channel in the FTNBets Discord for those bets when injuries are official.