NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/2)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I hope you had a great Halloween, because we have some scary schedule spots on a TNT Thursday.

One of the keys to handicapping any sport, but especially the NBA, is understanding the rigors of each team’s schedules. Back-to-back games, long road trips, and extended stretches without more than a night off are just some examples of things that can build up fatigue for a team. No matter how good the accommodations are, traveling every other day is tough on your sleep schedule and ability to recover game to game. Playing 82 games in roughly six months forces every team into bad schedule spots during the season. Tonight offers us several classic examples.

Let’s dive into each game, see what we can expect, and hopefully find some value in the betting markets.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers

Current Line – 76ers -8.5/215
My Projection – 76ers 111, Raptors 101
Key Injuries – Nic Batum is out.

Unfortunately for us, the Toronto Raptors chose Wednesday to finally break out offensively. They averaged 99.5 points per game in their first four matchups but were able to score 130 points against Milwaukee. The Raptors shot the most three-pointers they have all season and made almost 40% of them. They travel to Philadelphia to play their fifth game in seven days and sixth game in nine days at the beginning of a four-game road trip. That is a brutal spot for a team, especially facing a team coming off three days rest. Tired legs are bad for shooting, and I expect Toronto’s offense to come back to Earth tonight. They did score 107 against Philadelphia last week, but it was another hot shooting night and a look ahead spot for the 76ers. I’m expecting tonight to much different and am betting the Raptors team total under. It’s 103.5, I make it 101, and I see much more downside in that number than upside. Philadelphia is rested and matches up well against Toronto. I considered some Joel Embiid overs because he generally does well against Jakob Poeltl, but with the chance of a blowout comes the chance that the reigning MVP doesn’t see a full minutes load and lands short of his prop numbers.

Bet

Toronto Raptors Team Total Under 103.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans

Current Line – Pelicans -7, 218
My Projection – Pelicans 113, Pistons 105
Key Injuries – Jalen Duren and Brandon Ingram are questionable.

The Detroit Pistons have the same bad schedule spot as the Raptors but are coming off the opposite in terms of previous game performance. Portland outscored Detroit by 21 points in the second half Wednesday night to steal a win as the underdog. The Pistons are playing their fifth game in seven days, their sixth in nine days, and have yet to play two consecutive games at the same arena. There have been two games in Detroit, but both games were preceded by and followed by travel. Although a young roster overall, the physical toll of that stretch is coming if it’s not already there. To add to those troubles, they face the Pelicans who play physically and attack the rim ferociously. It looks like Detroit’s promising young center Jalen Duren may play, but even if he does there is not enough rim protection to slow down New Orleans. The Pelicans did play a tight game last night in Oklahoma City and could be fatigued themselves, but the bad spot and matchup for Detroit dictate a spread of this size. It could be a big night for Zion Williamson, especially if Duren does miss the game. He’ll be able to attack the basket without much to stop him, but this will be his first time playing two nights in a row and I’m worried about his fitness level and minute load. If Duren is out, I’ll play some overs, so check the FTNBets Discord to see if/when I do bet Zion over his points total.

Bets

None, for now

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz

Current Line – Magic -1, 221
My Projection – Magic 112, Jazz 110
Key Injuries – None

Two of the NBA’s “good bad teams” face off in Utah Thursday. Both squads are clearly better than the bottom teams in the league, but it also seems that they are clearly not good enough to compete with the good teams in the league. The Magic beat the Rockets and the Trail Blazers and lost to the Lakers and the Clippers. The Jazz did beat the Clippers, but their only other win came Wednesday against a Memphis Grizzlies team that is 0-5 and has the worst net rating in the NBA so far. This all makes Thursday’s matchup exciting to me because I get to learn more about these rosters, but it also makes it very hard for me to handicap confidently. This is the last game of a four-game road trip for the Magic, which can be a down spot, but the Jazz are on the second night of a back-to-back, although they played at home Wednesday. The strength of both the Magic and Jazz are in the frontcourt, and their weakness is in the backcourt. Paolo Banchero vs. Lauri Markkanen, Franz Wagner vs. John Collins, Walker Kessler vs. Wendell Carter, Jalen Suggs vs. Jordan Clarkson and Markelle Fultz vs. Talen Horton-Tucker are all great matchups that we get to watch from the tip. I’m going to enjoy the game, but I can’t discern any value in the betting markets.

Bets

None

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

Current Line – Suns -8.5, 227
My Projection – Suns 120, Spurs 110
Key Injuries – Bradley Beal is out. Devin Booker is questionable.

These two teams played Tuesday. The Suns took a 13-point lead into the fourth quarter but gave up that lead with two seconds on the clock after a Kevin Durant turnover, and they lost. Had Phoenix managed to win that game, Thursday may have been a look ahead spot to their game in Philadelphia Saturday, but instead, I’m expecting we get a locked-in Suns team. I’m also optimistic about the status of Devin Booker who was “upgraded to questionable” earlier this morning. The absurdity of phrases like that aside, that generally means the player is going to warm up and play if nothing bad happens pre-game. If he doesn’t play, I still think the Suns win this game comfortably and if Booker plays, they could win this game by a very large margin. Tuesday night was the first time this season the Spurs held a team to under 120 points and I expect that streak to end tonight regardless of Booker’s status. Obviously, I’d rather have the All-Star guard on the floor, but even without him I have Phoenix projected over their current team total. I’m going to play that over instead of the spread which becomes harder without Booker. Phoenix hit 114 despite just 19 points in the fourth quarter last matchup, and Thursday should only be better. Let’s be on the Suns shining brightly in the bounceback off a loss in a two-game series.