NFL Circa Millions Picks: Week 5

I’ve really enjoyed competing in the Circa Millions contest so far this year. For those of you unfamiliar with it, you pay $1,000 per entry and make five picks per week per entry. You get a point for each correct pick and a half point for a push.

Only sides are available for selecting, not over/unders. Whichever entry has the most correct picks at the end of the regular season wins the contest, and the payout structure resembles a DFS GPP, with $1 million to first as the top prize.

There’s a lot of things to like about this contest over traditional sports betting. First, you’re competing against other people in a tournament, so it adds another layer of strategy there. Second, there was overlay in the tournament, meaning Circa had to add money to the prize pool instead of taking a rake. 

Circa posts the official lines Thursday mornings, with picks due by Saturday afternoon (and Thursday afternoon before kickoff if you want to select the Thursday game). 

If you’re not selecting the Thursday game, it’s theoretically advantageous to wait as long as possible to make your selections in case there is a stale line (the lines don’t change after posted, which is why there’s a shorter period to make your selections). For example, if a team is -2 since their starting quarterback is likely out but he makes a miraculous recovery Friday and the line moves to -6, you can still select -2.

There are 5,273 entries into the Circa Millions, and I have two myself. Next year, I anticipate maxing out at five entries. 

My first entry is 11-8-1 and is in 1,276th place, and my second entry is 12-6-2 and is in 363rd place. While they’re both doing well, I really need to get in the top 100 by the end of the season to cash and especially the top 10 to make any real money. There’s even a really nice booby prize for being last (assuming you make all your picks), so this contest really channels the energy and wisdom of Reese Bobby.

For my first entry, I’m going to continue to focus on games with half points because it needs that full point or bust to move up. My second entry is doing well enough and it’s early enough, so I’ll just continue making what I think are the best selections. I don’t need to think of doing anything super contrarian like intentionally taking the bad side of a stale line just yet.

Here are the picks I am most likely looking to use between my two entries.

Week 5 Circa Millions Picks

Philadelphia Eagles -4

I feel like the Rams have greatly outperformed this year so far, and I doubt Cooper Kupp’s return will really do much to keep that momentum this week. This isn’t that much chalk for the Eagles to eat despite being on the road. It’s also Aaron Schatz’ second-highest confidence pick this week using DVOA.

New York Giants +11.5

If you’ve been following my DFS articles, you know how I love to choose hated players. There’s certainly no hated team more than the Giants after what they did Monday night. Miami is the better team, but I really don’t think Daniel Jones is that bad just yet. If Saquon Barkley returns, that should certainly add some additional spark to the offense, despite Matt Breida actually performing quite well in Monday’s loss. 

Tennessee Titans -1.5

This looks like both a stale line (I’m seeing -2.5 at most places) and also the Titans are just a better team than they seem. This is actually my favorite pick of all of these despite the short and simple writeup.

Dallas Cowboys +3.5

The 49ers have looked great this season, but the Cowboys are still a very good team despite one bad game. I think the Cardinals-centric logic — “the Cowboys got smacked by the Cardinals while the 49ers smacked the Cardinals, therefore bet the 49ers” — is something I just love to fade so much that I’m going to do it.

Jacksonville Jaguars +5

After destroying the Dolphins last week, this London game seems like a good letdown spot for the red-hot Bills. Even if the Bills manage to win the game, I think this Jacksonville team can keep it close enough to cover the spread. 

Baltimore Ravens -4

Outside of that weird loss to the Colts that nuked my survivor time, this Ravens team has been quite strong so far this year. They’re fourth in DOA and sixth in our DAVE ratings. In contrast, the Steelers only seem to win with fluke plays on the defense, and I think the Texans blowing them out last week wasn’t entirely a fluke.

New Orleans Saints PK

Talk about a battle of has-been teams. This certainly isn’t a matchup of peak Tom Brady–Drew Brees. I think the Saints are less pathetic and last week’s loss was due to Derek Carr’s injury that he shouldn’t have played through. My hope is Carr is back to normal this week.