WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
49ers vs. Giants
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-120/-109).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 79.5 (-109) after it opened @ 80.5 (-117).
Pros
- The 49ers are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Christian McCaffrey has grinded out 76.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (97th percentile).
- The New York Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up 5.28 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.7 plays per game.
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense results when facing better conditions this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
