WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
49ers vs. Giants
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-139) after it opened @ 44.5 (-119).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense results when facing better conditions this week.
- George Kittle has run a route on 88.4% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 6.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- George Kittle has notched a whopping 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among TEs.
- George Kittle has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 46.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.7 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
