Week 3 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Our huge +160 hit on the Ravens as road underdogs offset a 1-2 week on NFL moneyline underdogs. The extensive injuries to the Houston Texans and Jaguars repeated red zone struggles kept us from a very solid Week 2 profit. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason, they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. We enter Week 3 with a +120 and +160 outright winner on the season.

Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the week.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 3 of the 2023 season.

Week 3 NFL Moneyline Underdog Picks

Washington +6.5 vs. Buffalo

+230, FanDuel Sportsbook

The odds are too enticing to pass on a Washington moneyline wager as home underdogs. The return of Chase Young bolstered the Commanders pass rush that registered seven sacks on Russell Wilson’s in Sunday’s 35-33 win at Denver. Young posted 1.5 sacks in his first game of the season, as the Washington defense also recorded a fumble recovery and interception. The Commanders now have 10 sacks and three fumble recoveries in two games, which should keep this game close, even against an explosive Buffalo offense. 

Per BetLabs, Washington head coach Ron Rivera is 7-4-1 (63.6%) as a home underdog of three points or more, indicating this game should remain within the 6.5-point spread. The Bills are ranked fourth-overall by team DVOA, but Washington sits a surprising 10th. Washington enjoyed the healthy return of wideout Terry McLaurin, who torched an elite Denver secondary on this pass for an impressive touchdown. 

This is a dangerous matchup for Buffalo, especially with the public lacking belief in the Commanders. Sounds like the perfect Week 3 moneyline underdog, especially at +230. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 2.3 Units

Tampa Bay +5.5 vs. Philadelphia 

+200, BetMGM

Be careful with the Eagles, who have narrowly escaped their first two victories. 

In Week 1 they were gifted a 16-0 lead as a result of two New England turnovers — they were outscored 20-9 the rest of the game by a limited Patriots offense. In Week 2, they posted 34 points on a suspect Minnesota defense, yet allowed Kirk Cousins to post 364 passing yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. The Eagles also benefited from four (!) fumble recoveries. 

They now travel to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers defense that ranks seventh in defensive DVOA including sixth against the pass. Tampa Bay will provide resistance against an Eagles offense that has yet to find their footing in the passing game. Quarterback Jalen Hurts ranks just 26th in total passing yards (363) among quarterbacks this season, just three yards more than Joshua Dobbs. The Buccaneers’ strong rush defense should also ensure D’Andre Swift does not dominate on the ground as he did in Week 2. 

The public is still believing in the Eagles team based on last season, while this Tampa Bay success carries doubts. If Tampa Bay can limit Swift, and Hurts fails to improve the passing attack, the Bucs could grab his +200 upset. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 2 Units