Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Puka Nacua from EV Insight

Puka NacuaReceiving Yards

Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+107/-139).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+107) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).

Pros

The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Puka Nacua to accumulate 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Puka Nacua to be a much smaller part of his team’s air attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (38.9% in games he has played).
Puka Nacua has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards