Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave from EV Insight

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Luke Musgrave to earn 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 6.94 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 10th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards