Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-115) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 33.0 yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (59.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
