NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (77%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (77.0%).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have played in the most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- Jake Ferguson has totaled a paltry 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 23rd percentile among tight ends.
- Jake Ferguson has been among the bottom TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 3rd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
