Two-plus weeks into the 2025 MLB season, and our  FTN MLB Power Rankings are certainly liking the National League more than the American League. The top five, and seven of the top 10, teams in our current power rankings play in the Senior Circuit.

The Dodgers have cooled a bit since their 8-0 start, 3-6 in their last nine games and suffering the worst home shutout loss in team history Saturday, but they are still comfortably the No. 1 team in our power rankings, projected for over 10 more wins than any other team. The Cubs are setting themselves apart in the NL Central, and the NL West has three teams at 10-plus wins, four at 9-plus, and the Rockies doing a whole different thing.

So let’s take a look at where the power rankings sit as we approach tax day and how the FTN Model sees the season playing out. Below are some key takeaways, and then check at bottom for the full power rankings.

Key Takeaways

AL Central in the Tank

Every division in our power rankings has at least one top-10 team. Every division in our power rankings has an average win projection of at least 80.2. Except, in both cases, one — the AL Central. The Tigers are the top-ranked Central team in our power rankings, at 14^th (they and the No. 18 Royals are the only ones inside the top 20). The Tigers are also the only Central team projected to win even 80 games, at 82.5, and the division averaged is a lowly 73.7.

Other than the 2020 pandemic season, we’ve never had a team make the postseason with a sub-.500 record. The Padres won the NL West at 82-80 in 2005, our standard-bearer for worst to date. But it’s definitely within the realm of possibility that the AL Central winner struggles to even get to 80 wins in 2025.

Dogfight in the NL East

The Braves sit in last place in the NL East, 4-11, 6 games back of the first-place Mets. Despite that, our models still believe in a Braves team that entered the season with lofty expectations and should be getting ace Spencer Strider back soon. As a result, the NL East holds three of the top five spots in our power rankings, with the Mets second, the Braves fourth and the Phillies fifth. Their projected win totals go from the Mets at 93.6 to the Phillies at 90.8. The No. 27 Nationals and No. 28 Marlins aren’t likely to enter the conversation, but assuming the Braves right the ship, the East could be a heated battle all season.

Rangers Still Holding on to Top-10 Spot

It was a disaster week for Texas. They entered last week at 8-2, the best record in baseball. But they lost five of six games to the Cubs and Mariners and lost Jack Leiter and Wyatt Langford to the IL. Marcus Semien and Joc Pederson are slashing a combined .100/.189/.150 with one home run, Jacob deGrom has a 4.30 ERA through 14.2 innings, with his K numbers down and walk numbers up. Despite all that, our model still has the Rangers as the No. 7 team overall and No. 2 team in the American League, and they’re projected to finish about 1.5 wins ahead of the Astros. Another week like last one and we’ll see some slipping, though.

2 Hundred-Loss Clubs? More?

The Marlins, Rockies and White Sox were seen as the worst teams in baseball entering the season. Not much that has happened so far has changed that, especially for the latter two. The Marlins sit at 8-7 so far, but the Rockies and White Sox are a combined 7-23, the two worst records in baseball (the White Sox are tied with the Braves for second worst). Neither team is projected to reach even 60 wins in our model (the Rockies are at 59.9, the White Sox 55.4), and they’re the bottom two teams. And despite the early moderate success, the model isn’t buying in on Miami, either — they’re the No. 28 team in our power rankings at a 65.6-win projection.

Check out our full rankings below: