(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff preview!)

The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will square off in one of the most intriguing first-round matchups of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. 

It’s impossible to talk about the Lakers’ season without starting with the midseason blockbuster trade that sent Anthony Davis to Dallas in exchange for Luka Dončić. The results since the trade have been mostly positive, though not exactly earth-shattering. The Lakers are happy to have secured the third seed in the West, but a 21-13 record since the trade indicates there is still room to grow. Luka personally has room to grow as well, as his 43.8% field goal percentage is his least efficient number since his rookie year. That said, he has momentum heading into the playoffs, averaging 31.8 PPG in April on 52.5% shooting. 

Speaking of momentum, the Timberwolves have a ton of it heading into the playoffs. They went 18-8 after the All-Star break and seem prepared for a deep run into the playoffs. With Karl-Anthony Towns now in New York, the Timberwolves have reshaped their roster around Anthony Edwards, adding key pieces like Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo It starts with Edwards, who averaged a career-high 27.6 PPG this season, but the Timberwolves have talent and versatility throughout the entire roster.

In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up, and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Lakers vs. Timberwolves at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The third-seeded Lakers are the current betting favorites at -190 at DraftKings. 

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Timberwolves a 51.2% chance to win, compared to 49.0% for the Lakers. It’s essentially a toss-up on paper — yet the betting market is treating the Lakers like clear favorites.

That disconnect creates an opportunity for value on the Timberwolves at +155, especially if they can steal one of the first two games in Los Angeles.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Lakers faced the Timberwolves four times this season, with the teams splitting the season series 2-2. 

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• Minnesota Dominated at Home: The Wolves won both games in Minnesota comfortably, holding the Lakers to just 80 and 87 points.
• Lakers Took Care of Business in LA: The Lakers won both home games, scoring 110+ in each.
• Defense Was the Story: All four of these games were played at a slow pace, with the under hitting in all four

Major Takeaways:

• Homecourt could play a huge role in this series, something to watch closely with the Lakers holding the higher seed.
• Luka Dončić only played in one of the games, and the Lakers won that matchup 111-102.
• Luka Dončić has yet to face Rudy Gobert as a Laker, but the Timberwolves held Luka to 24 & 14 points in two matchups with the Mavericks this season. 

Lakers vs. Timberwolves: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

The Timberwolves play at one of the most methodical paces in the league, ranking 25th in pace. Will the Lakers try to speed them up, or will this series be a case of first team to 100 wins?

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Minnesota, both in efficiency and consistency. The Wolves were better on both ends of the floor, and unlike the Lakers, they maintained a positive net rating throughout the season.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Push. The Lakers win at the free-throw line, shooting the third most in the league. But the Timberwolves are one of the best 3-point shooting teams at 37.7% on the year.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Minnesota. The Lakers struggle on the glass, particularly since trading Anthony Davis. Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid could have a ton of success in this area.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward i this matchup. 

Luka Dončić vs. Anthony Edwards

There is no point in burying the lede — this is the matchup that is going to determine the outcome of this series. With all due respect to LeBron James, these are the two best players in this series, and there’s a good chance that they’re guarding each other throughout the games. 

Luka Dončić – Los Angeles Lakers

• Games Played: 50*
• Stats: 28.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 7.7 APG
• Shooting Splits: 45.0% FG, 36.8% 3PT, 78.2% FT
• Advanced: 53.6% eFG, 24.1 PER, 5.9 Win Shares

Luka Dončić is the Lakers’ offensive anchor — their best scorer, passer and shot-creator in the halfcourt. His ability to manipulate pick-and-roll coverages and hunt mismatches will be critical, especially if Minnesota throws different defenders at him.

The key for Luka: Can he handle the Timberwolves’ length and physicality over a full series, and will his body hold up if Minnesota turns this into a grind-it-out slugfest?

*Note: stats are for games played on the Lakers only. 

Anthony Edwards – Minnesota Timberwolves

• Games Played: 79
• Stats: 27.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.5 APG
• Shooting Splits: 44.7% FG, 39.5% 3PT, 83.7% FT
• Advanced: 54.7% eFG, 20.1 PER, 8.4 Win Shares

Ant took another leap this season — both statistically and as the face of the Timberwolves. He shot a career-high from three and has become a legitimate three-level scorer who can attack anyone off the dribble. He also carries the defensive load on the perimeter, often tasked with guarding opposing stars.

The key for Edwards: Can he sustain his offensive efficiency while likely checking Luka for stretches? Last year’s playoffs proved he’s ready, but with KAT now in New York, and expectations now set high, the lights are shining even brighter for ANT. 

LeBron James vs. Jaden McDaniels

LeBron James may be 40 years old, but he remains one of the most dominant playoff forces in the NBA, and is comfortably the third-best player in this series. But Minnesota has the exact type of defender they’ll hope can slow him down in the long, physical and relentless Jaden McDaniels. This matchup won’t decide the series from a scoring perspective, but McDaniels’ ability to contain LeBron will go a long way towards deciding this series. 

LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers

• Games Played: 70
• Stats: 24.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 8.2 APG
• Shooting Splits:  51.3% FG, 37.6% 3PT, 78.2% FT
• Advanced: 57.1% eFG, 22.7 PER, 7.7 Win Shares

Even at age 40, LeBron remains one of the NBA’s best all-around offensive forces. He averaged 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists this season while shooting over 51% from the field and nearly 38% from three.

While the addition of Luka removes some of the playmaking burden on LeBron, he’ll still be a critical decision maker late in games. 

The key for LeBron: Can he physically handle McDaniels’ length and athleticism over a full series, or will he have to rely more on jumpers than usual?

Jaden McDaniels – Minnesota Timberwolves

• Games Played: 82
• Stats: 12.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 47.7% FG, 33.0% 3PT
• Shooting Splits: 47.7% FG, 33.0% 3PT, 81.3% FT
• Advanced: 53.7% eFG, 13.3 PER, 6.3 Win Shares

McDaniels is not a household name offensively, but defensively, he’s one of the best wing stoppers in the NBA. His combination of length (6-foot-9), quickness, and footwork allows him to guard multiple positions, but this series will likely demand heavy minutes locked onto LeBron.

Minnesota doesn’t need McDaniels to outscore LeBron, they just need him to slow him down, contest everything, and stay out of foul trouble.

The key for McDaniels: Can he be disruptive without over-fouling, and will he hit just enough corner threes to stay on the floor in crunch time?

Series Prediction: Lakers vs. Timberwolves

This is the classic case of market perception vs. model reality. The sportsbooks see the Lakers as clear favorites, but FTN’s model and my pick both lean Minnesota.

FTN Model Prediction: Timberwolves

According to FTN’s model, this series projects as a true coin flip — but slightly favors Minnesota.

Marshall’s Pick: Timberwolves in 6

I’m siding with the model in series, agreeing that the market has it wrong. The Lakers have star power with Luka Dončić, LeBron James and the emergence of Austin Reaves, but the Timberwolves can handle them defensively. The Timberwolves’ length, versatility and ability to control pace are exactly the kind of traits that give this version of the Lakers trouble. Anthony Edwards has taken the leap, and if Rudy Gobert stays out of foul trouble, I think Minnesota can close this series out without even needing a Game 7. It might not always be pretty, but Minnesota is built to win ugly, and that’s exactly how you beat the Lakers.

Best Bets for Lakers vs. Timberwolves

With FTN’s model projecting this series as nearly a coin flip, but slightly favoring Minnesota, there are a few bets that stand out based on both value and the most likely outcomes from our simulations.

Best Bet 1: Timberwolves to Win the Series

(+155, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is the clear best bet on the board.

FTN’s model gives Minnesota a 51.2% chance to win this series — implying true odds closer to -105. But the market is pricing them like a clear underdog at +155.

That’s a huge edge.

Minnesota matches up really well with this version of the Lakers. They dominated them on the glass during the regular season, defended them well in the halfcourt, and have the depth advantage to withstand foul trouble or poor shooting nights.

If you’re following the data, this is the first bet to make.

Best Bet 2: Timberwolves -1.5 Games

(+260, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you agree with me that Minnesota can win this series without it going the full seven games, this is the way to bet it.

FTN’s model gives the Wolves about a 30% chance to win this series in six games or fewer. Given their advantages on the glass and defense, I think there’s a real chance Minnesota takes care of business before Game 7.

You’re getting +260 on them winning in 4, 5, or 6 — all of which are realistic outcomes if their defense shows up and the Lakers’ flaws are exposed.

Final Thoughts on Lakers vs. Timberwolves

This is expected to be one of the best and most competitive series of the first round. With the addition of Luka Dončić, nobody expects the Lakers to head home early this season. Unfortunately, they got an extremely tough draw, having to face the Timberwolves in round one. Not only are the Wolves one of the hottest teams in the league, but they are a tough stylistic draw for the Lakers as well. This series has all the ingredients to be one of the best in the first round — star power, contrasting styles, and real stakes. I can’t wait to see how it plays out.