WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-115) after it opened @ 18.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap.
- Logan Thomas has run a route on 68.6% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Logan Thomas has posted a monstrous 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has given up the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (63.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Commanders are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Logan Thomas has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, completing a measly 66.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
- Logan Thomas has been among the least efficient receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging just 5.60 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 9th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
