NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the top tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 33.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 32.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 5.30 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
