College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
With Week 1 of the 2023 college football season a little over a month away, it’s a great time to look at the latest odds for the SEC.
2023 SEC Odds
Here are the updated odds for which team will win the SEC Championship Game this upcoming season, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Georgia (-115)
- Alabama (+300)
- LSU (+450)
- Texas A&M (+1400)
- Tennessee (+1400)
- Ole Miss (+4500)
- Auburn (+8000)
- South Carolina (+9000)
- Florida (+10000)
- Kentucky (+10000)
- Arkansas (+10000)
- Mississippi State (+12000)
- Missouri (+15000)
- Vanderbilt (+50000)
Can Kirby Smart, Georgia three-peat as national champions?
The Bulldogs saw multiple players on both sides of the ball leave in the offseason for the NFL, but that hasn’t deterred the oddsmakers from making them the favorites to win the SEC (-115). The two-time defending national champs are also the favorite to win the national title (+215) for a third consecutive year. The last time a team won three straight national championships was Minnesota in the 1930s (1934-36). Simply put, it’s not an easy feat, and it won’t be easy for the Bulldogs as they will have a new QB under center.
Junior Carson Beck is competing with Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton for the starting QB job vacated by Stetson Bennett, who was drafted by the Rams. Georgia head coach Kirby Smart said earlier this week that Beck is “certainly the leader, but hasn’t done enough to say he’s the starter,” according to ESPN’s Chris Low. The 6-foot-4 quarterback played in seven games last season, completing 26-of-35 passes for 310 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Staying on the offensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs have a solid running game led by Daijuan Edwards, who was the team’s second-leading rusher (771 yards and seven touchdowns) behind Kenny McIntosh. Finally, in the receiving department, standout tight end Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey should make life easy for whoever wins the starting job. Bowers has been one of the better tight ends in college football over the past couple of seasons and led the Bulldogs with 63 receptions for 942 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. He also had three rushing TDs last season. Meanwhile, McConkey had 58 receptions for 762 yards and nine total touchdowns (seven receiving, two rushing).
Lastly, the Bulldogs’ defense had five players selected in this year’s NFL draft, but they still will be one of the more feared defenses in the country. Last season, Georgia allowed 14.3 points per game (fifth-best in the country) while also leading the SEC in total yards (292.1) and rushing yards per game (77) allowed. Looking at their schedule, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bulldogs run the table as they don’t have a tough non-conference schedule and won’t play Tennessee until Nov. 18. Georgia just has to play their brand of football, and they’ll be back in the SEC title game awaiting Alabama or LSU.
Alabama is a slight favorite to win SEC West crown over LSU
Speaking of the SEC West, the Crimson Tide is surprisingly a short favorite to win the division (-105) over the Tigers (+200). Alabama finished first in the SEC West last season (11-2, 6-2) but did not compete in the SEC title game as they lost to LSU (10-4, 6-2) during the regular season. Nick Saban will try to get the Tide back to the SEC title game with a new QB not named Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts. Alabama has three QBs who could win the job Tyler Buchner, Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson. Saban has not yet named a starter, which isn’t ideal for a team with national championship aspirations.
However, the Crimson Tide still has playmakers on both sides of the ball, which can take the heat off whoever is the starter. As for the Tigers, they played well in Brian Kelly’s first year in Baton Rouge. Jayden Daniels, who transferred from Arizona State, was an upgrade over Max Johnson, as he’s a plus-one in the running game. The dual-threat quarterback completed 68.6% of his passes for 2,913 yards, 17 touchdowns, and three interceptions, which aren’t big numbers. However, Daniels led the Tigers with 885 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Kelly will hope that senior running backs Noah Cain, Josh Williams, and John Emery Jr. can build off their performances last season, where they scored 22 rushing touchdowns.
If LSU’s running game does its job, it should open up the passing game for junior wide receiver Malik Nabers. Nabers had an outstanding 2022 campaign (72 receptions for 1,017 yards and three touchdowns). Finally, on the defensive end, the Tigers have a future first-round pick in linebacker Harold Perkins, who had a tremendous freshman season. Perkins led LSU with 13 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks while recording 72 total tackles. The Tigers’ defense allowed 22.5 points per game last season, which isn’t too shabby playing in the SEC. Last season, LSU lost four games by 15.7 points per game. We don’t see that happening this season, as they don’t have to play Tennessee and will get Texas A&M at home. At +200 odds to win the SEC West, bettors might have to consider it, as the Tigers have the pieces to get back to the title game.
Gamecocks, Volunteers battling for second in SEC East
Last season, Tennessee finished second in the SEC East with an 11-2 record, 6-2 in conference play. The Volunteers’ two losses came against Georgia (27-13) and South Carolina (63-38). Outside of those defeats, it was an excellent season for head coach Josh Heupel, who had a 7-6 record in his first year in Knoxville (2021). Heupel will try for another 10-win season in 2023, but this time with Joe Milton starting at quarterback. The former Michigan Wolverines transfer played in nine games last year, completing 64.6% of his passes for 971 yards, 10 TDs and zero interceptions.
Milton started in the Vols’ last two games after Hendon Hooker suffered a torn ACL Nov. 19 against the Gamecocks. The 6-foot-4 quarterback put on a show in the Orange Bowl against Clemson, completing 67.9% of his passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns as the Volunteers won 31-14. Milton has one of the most electrifying arms in college football. But his accuracy issues have been a struggle throughout his collegiate career. If Milton plays as he did in the Orange Bowl and the defense continues to improve, the Vols could hit the OVER 9.5 wins (+155 DraftKings).
As for South Carolina, Spencer Rattler had a rough start to his first season in the SEC, throwing for five touchdowns and nine interceptions through the first eight contests. However, something clicked for the former Oklahoma standout, as he went on an incredible run in the last five games of the regular season. Rattler threw 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Most of his TD passes came against the Volunteers, where he completed 81.1% of his passes for 438 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Rattler dismantled Tennessee’s defense, which put him on the NFL draft radar.
Rattler decided to return to school this season, which was a great idea. Head coach Shane Beamer and South Carolina don’t have an easy schedule as they play North Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia within the first five weeks. If South Carolina can go 2-1 in those games, it will set themselves up nicely to go over their win total (6.5).
Best Bets for the SEC
For bettors looking for a best bet to place before the regular season kicks off, they should take Arkansas over 6.5 wins (-134 FanDuel).
Head coach Sam Pittman has posted back-to-back winning seasons in Fayetteville after going 3-7 in his first year with the Razorbacks (2020). Arkansas finished fifth in the SEC West (7-6) last season due to their struggles in conference play (3-5). The Razorbacks will look to be .500 or better in the conference this season as they will have QB K.J. Jefferson back for his fifth season. Jefferson has quietly been one of the more consistent QBs in college over the past two seasons, throwing 45 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Last season, Jefferson completed a career-high 68% of his passes for 2,636 yards, 24 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He’s also a threat in the running game, rushing for 640 yards and nine touchdowns. Arkansas also has a dynamic running back in Raheim Sanders, who ran for 1,443 yards and 10 TDs last season.
However, for the Razorbacks to go over 6.5 wins this season, they will need their defense to improve quickly. Last season, Arkansas allowed 30.6 points per game, but they made a ton of changes in the offseason to the roster to fix their issues. The Razorbacks lost four games by three points or loss in 2022. If Arkansas can play .500 or better on the road, which will be tough as they will play LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida – seven wins is attainable.
