MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The UFC is just over the halfway mark in the second half of the season, and this weekend they make another stop in London to feature a heavyweight clash between Tom Aspinal and Marcin Tybura. The co-main event features Molly McCann as she takes on submission threat Julija Stoliarenko.
Before we get to the co- and main event, though, we have three bouts on the main card that should be electrifying with the potential for fight-ending violence. Nathaniel Wood looks to extend his winning streak in a new weight class against Andre Fili, Andre Muniz looks to show Paul Craig that he is the better grappler, Jai Herbert looks to get on his first win streak in the UFC against rising Frenchman Fares Ziam and Lerone Murphy kicks off the main card against a tough Josh Culibao.
Altogether there are five fighters from England in the main event, and here stateside, we get a treat as the card starts mid-day Saturday at noon E.T. All odds are per BetMGM.
Aspinal vs. Tybura Odds
Tom Aspinal -450, Marcin Tybura +350
Stepping into the cage after a gruesome injury and a year, Aspinal is back to continue his run toward the division’s top. In his way is gatekeeper Tybura. The heavyweight division has a new king at the top, so this matchup potentially sets up a future contender. For Aspinal, he has something to prove as the fighter coming back from injury after only a year. Before the injury, he dominated every opponent and had yet to reach a third round in the UFC. Aspinal has been with the UFC since 2020 and is currently 5-1, with 67% of wins coming through knockout. He has a background in jiujitsu and boxing, and he uses movement well to move in and out of striking range. All of the above makes him very good and well-rounded. Still, I think what helps him most is his experience fighting top talent. Aspinal has fought the likes of Volkov, Spivac, Arlovski and Baudot and debuted against Jake Collier. He dominated each one of his opponents, and his biggest test to date was going to be Curtis Blaydes, but an injury canceled that challenge.
Tybura now steps in as the newest and most formidable challenge for Aspinal. Skill-wise, I think Aspinal has Tybura covered by a mile, but the fact that he was just injured, was a pretty bad injury, and he’s probably going to get dragged into deep water. It makes this a very challenging fight mentally. Tybura doesn’t have much to lose as the gatekeeper, and Aspinal, as the hype train, now has to prove himself once again. The line on these fighters is justified, but I think you’d have to be looking to possibly live bet if you want a better number on Aspinal. Pre-fight, it’ll be juiced, but if Tybura manages to get past the first round, then the odds may be better for a straight bet on Allen, who I’m convinced will dominate and continue his run toward the top. Tybura is proven, and since having a shaky start in the UFC, he’s since gone on a seven-fight win streak and deserves this main event against the UFC’s newest prospect. Tyburas best path to victory is for this fight to go into deep waters and test the gas tank of Aspinall. Tybura hasn’t been stopped in four years; for that reason, if a finish does occur, I’d assume it’d happen late in the fight and over 1.5 rounds.
Bet: Aspinal vs. Tybura over 1.5 rounds +145 | Pick: Tom Aspinal -450
McCann vs. Stoliarenko Odds
Molly McCann -210, Julija Stoliarenko +173
If, by chance, this fight happens, I can’t see it being challenging for the hometown hero McCann. Still, if she can weather the storm from the bigger grappler, then the weight cut should limit the gas tank of Stoliarenko and give Molly the edge the longer the fight goes. It’s surprising to me that McCann is in such a prominent position, considering the lack of skill and athletic ability of a champion. Sure, she’s exciting, but if Paddy Pimblett doesn’t come around and she doesn’t get the knockout of the year against Luana Carolina, then we may not even be talking about Molly in this spot. She may still be scrapping on the undercard, whether it’s a stroke of lighting or hard work and creating her luck.
This fight is McCann’s to lose. She has been susceptible to a ground game, but it was against a much more potent grappler in Gilian Robertson. Stoliarenko also has an issue with the weight cut, and she’s not very good at stand-up. Molly averages nearly three times the significant strikes compared to Stoliarenko. She also makes fights ugly, which will wear on the gas tank of the armbar specialist and make it difficult to get anything started.
Bet: Molly McCann by KO/TKO or submission +135, Mcann vs. Stoliarenko over 1.5 rounds -175 | Pick: Molly McCann -210
Wood vs. Fili Odds
Nathaniel Wood -195, Andre Fili +170
Wood continues his run in the featherweight division, this time taking on “Touchy” Fili. The 10-year vet serves as a litmus test for Wood, who is coming off a victory against Charles Jourdain last year in Paris. That victory would move him to 2-0 as a featherweight, an impressive feat considering he wasn’t big as a bantamweight, and now he’s undersized in almost every matchup from now on. He’s made it work so far, but Fili has a significant height (5in.) and reach (5in.), so it’ll be interesting to see if Wood can close the distance and secure takedowns. Fili comes from Team Alpha Male and is well-rounded in all areas of MMA. His issue may be with his output, as Wood averages 98 significant strikes landed over his last five fights, and Filis’s career high in significant strikes is 98. Did I mention that Fili has been fighting in the UFC for 10 years? His lack of output will be the difference in this bout, as the power and the output mixed in with the constant takedown attempts will be enough to earn Wood the decision to win. Whichever way it goes, I do believe both fighters are durable enough to go the distance. I do expect it to be scrappy and close the whole fight, so look for a decision prop for wood and, if you can find it, the split decision prop as well. It should be a good one and possibly the fight of the night. There is also a chance wood scores a late finish, so look for the “in round three or by decision” prop where available to make the -195 moneyline number better to bet.
Bet: Nathaniel Wood by decision +110 | Pick: Nathaniel Wood -195
Muniz vs. Craig Odds
Andre Muniz -200, Paul Craig +170
Usually, when two specialists of the same discipline meet in the octagon, they know each other’s game enough to make the fight ugly and opposite of what the public expects. In this case, Paul Craig and Andre Muniz are high-level jiujitsu athletes who, over the years, have improved their striking but, more times than not, hunt submissions for the win. Craig and Muniz have 28 submission wins combined. They are both dangerous on the ground but slightly differ in their approach. For example, Muniz averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Paul Craig, who averages 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. I’m sure Paul Craig has had dominant wins in his career, but it’s important to note that even though he has wins over current/former light heavyweight champ Jamahl Hill and Ankalev. Craig was knocking on the shadow realm’s doorstep and landed hail mary submissions to grab victory from the jaws of defeat. Both of these guys have power, so a knockout is always on the table, but overall the better fighter is Muniz, and he will have the edge on the ground, which will be pivotal when Craig starts to waiver on his feet. Both fighters have had gas tank issues in the past but considering their styles, Muniz will be fine grappling the entire fight or until he finds a finish. The pick is Muniz to find a finish inside the distance. His pressure, strength, and the fact that Craig is making his debut in a new weight class at thirty-seven. All roads lead to Muniz having a dominant performance.
Bet: Muniz by KO/TKO or submission -115, Muniz in Round 2 +450 | Pick: Andre Muniz -225
Ziam vs. Herbert Odds
Fares Ziam -155, Jai Herbert +135
Another set of specialists face off when Fares Ziam and Jai Herbert look to keep their win streaks alive after turning the corner in their last fights. Ziam made his return to the UFC after being cut in 2022. He proved that this run in the UFC would not be taken for granted, and the Frenchman landed multiple takedowns on his way to a dominant victory over dangerous Debutant Michal Figlak. I highlight the takedowns because Ziam is known more for his kickboxing, so seeing him land three takedowns showed a new wrinkle in his game that could be helpful Saturday. Another advantage for Ziam is that he averages six more significant strikes landed per minute, and he’s more accurate in percentage (44% vs. 42%). It’s also important to note that Ziam is the most prominent fighter that Herbert has fought, which presents a new challenge for Herbert, who is always used to having the advantage and using his reach and distance. This fight will likely have intense exchanges with both of their chins tested. The difference for me comes in the grappling department and if Ziam can implement that which has plagued Herbert in the past. I also think that Ziam is the cleaner striker, while the “Black Country Banger” looks to brawl and has improved technique over time Ziam has always had the technique from the start, as his specialty is kickboxing. This fight may go either way, and the grappling edge may be why Ziam is favored over his opponent on enemy soil. For me, I’m going to side with Ziam and also with the durability of both fighters and betting this fight to go the distance. Both fighters average over 10 minutes of fight time, and even though Herbert hasn’t been too many decisions In the UFC, Ziam has seen four out of the last five go-to decisions.
Bet: Herbert vs. Ziam fight goes the distance -125 | Pick: Fares Ziam -155
Murphy vs. Culibao Odds
Lerone Murphy -130, Josh Culibao +110
Kicking off the main card is an exciting matchup between Josh Culibao and the hometown favorite Lerone Murphy. Culibao is on a three-fight win streak and overall is 11-1-1 as a professional. His first and only loss came in his debut against Jalin Turner in 2020. Since then, Culibao has beaten Shaylin Neurdanbieke, Seung Woo Choi and Melsik Baghdasaryan. He is well-rounded, quick and has power in his hands. He doesn’t incorporate any takedowns into his game plan, but he does have one win by submission. The best way to describe Culibao is by simply calling him exciting. He doesn’t shy away from a scrap and fights like someone looking for fight bonuses. Lerone Murphy brings a similar style but with more precision and output. The reach is identical in this fight, so neither fighter has the edge in that department, but when the fighters inevitably meet in the middle, the straight shots from Murphy could connect faster than the looping strikes from Culibao. Murphy made his debut against a tough wrestler, and he impressed by making a late comeback and fighting his way to a draw. Throughout the next four fights, he made it a trend to start slow and pick it up throughout the fight, leading to exciting but close fights. His last fight saw him edge out a tough Gabriel Santos by a split decision. He won’t have to worry about the takedowns from Culibao, but he may want to implement some takedowns in case this fight is close going into the third round. From a betting perspective, I’m going to take this fight to go the distance, and I’m also going to side with Murphy to win by decision and get the hometown nod from the judges.
Bet: Culibao vs. Murphy fight goes the distance -175, Murphy by decision +140 | Pick: Lerone Murphy -145
