Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
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New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
Mets +110 @ Giants -130 – Total 9 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kodai Senga and his “Ghost Forkball” couldn’t cash for us Thursday, but we’re headed right back to Oracle Park Saturday afternoon for another K prop. If it seems like I’m picking on the Giants — I certainly am.
The Giants lead the majors with a 27.5% K% overall, and that number is even higher against lefties at 30.1%, fourth highest in the show. Nobody makes less contact on pitches outside the strike zone than San Francisco at 56.6%. They haven’t had much more success on pitches in the zone — as their 82.8% Z-contact percentage is the fourth lowest in baseball. Overall, the Giants have the fourth-highest swinging-strike percentage in MLB at 12.3%.
Mets lefty David Peterson posted a 27.8% K% last season, which was good enough to rank in the 80th percentile. Through four starts this season that number sits at 23.9% but his contact metrics aren’t far off from where they were in 2022. Peterson’s whiff% still sits in the 76th percentile and his position should improve after Saturday’s matchup. His changeup carries a 30% K% and his fastball has a 26.1% K% — the Giants have the fourth-most punchouts against both of those offerings so far in 2023.
I’m projecting David Peterson to pitch about six innings Saturday afternoon and rack up the six or seven punchouts we need to cash. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
David Peterson Over 5.5 K’s -130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
