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NBA Postseason Best Bets of the Day (4/22)

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NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

 

James Harden Over 9.5 Assists

(+112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

With no Joel Embiid, James Harden should see a sizeable usage uptick, as his usage rate went up over 31% without Embiid on the floor in the regular season. You can also get this line at 8.5 assists at some fairly unappealing odds like -150 on some other books, but my model projects him for 12 assists, so I’m going to take the 9.5 at plus-money, and I’ll also be laddering his assists with his 12-plus assists at +350 and 14-plus at +900. 

Russell Westbrook Over 9.5 Assists

(+105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Hopefully you didn’t miss out on the big night a few days ago when Russell Westbrook went for 30 points and 12 assists, as I had a big night on FTN Bets as well! 

Everything that I liked about Russ last game still stands here. He is the engine of this team right now, he is going to have the ball in his hands a ton, and he is going to play massive minutes. He had a 34% usage rate last game, and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to repeat that.

 

Jaren Jackson Over 3.5 Blocks + Steals

(-104, Caesars)

Unfortunately Jaren Jackson is not at home for this one, but my model loves this number regardless. My model has JJJ nearly getting here on blocks alone, and with the amount of pace that these two teams play with, a stock upside game is always right around the corner for him. He has gone over this number in three of his last four games and in a playoff atmosphere where he is pushed for more minutes he has a great chance to make it four of five.

 
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