Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The last day of the NBA regular season is on April 9. That means we are down to the last 14 days of the 2022-23 regular season. Most teams have about seven or eight games remaining. The playoff picture isn’t in focus yet, despite a few games remaining. We have four teams that are eliminated and about five that have already solidified a spot in the postseason.
The East is starting to see a little more separation, but the Western Conference is still very much up in the air. Denver is close to locking up home court throughout the playoffs, with Memphis and Sacramento the only teams left that could catch them. The 4-12 spots in the West are separated by a total of just four games from top to bottom, so anything can happen. If the playoffs started today, Utah and Dallas would be the first two teams out, with Oklahoma City stealing the 10th and final spot.
Six of the nine games on today’s slate have spreads of three possessions or more. We have seen a lot of games lately that have been very one-sided, and those types of games tend to lean toward unders. Keep this in mind when you are making your player prop picks from now until the end of the season. The FTN NBA Betting model has been crushing totals this year. We have three bets today that qualify as 10%+ edges. They make up today’s best bets.
NBA Best Point Total Bets
Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets UNDER 230.5
The Charlotte Hornets rank dead last in the league for points scored per 100 possessions. The Dallas Mavericks rank sixth on the season but have been in the bottom 10 of the league over the last two weeks. This is a rematch of the last game these two teams played which also came in under at 226. Both defenses have been better than their seasonal averages over the last two weeks. Both offenses have also been worse. Take into account the fact the Hornets are already one of the first teams eliminated from the playoffs, and you can see why betting the under is the play in this one.
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors OVER 220.5
The Toronto Raptors have been the most efficient offense over the last two weeks. They have scored a massive 124.7 points per 100 possessions over that time span. Their defense is slipping a little but is still a middle-of-the-pack defense. The Wizards haven’t been a great scoring team this season. They rank league average for scoring and much worse than that defensively. This game was adjusted downward, because the Wizards are without Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal. They went over 220 points in each of the last two games as well, playing both of those games without that duo. The last game finished with 260 total points, so I’m not overly concerned about the Wizards being without two of their top scorers. They have shown they can score without them.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks OVER 243.5
Yes, the 243.5 point total is huge. I am still going to take the over. The Grizzlies and Hawks is the type of matchup you want to bet the over because both teams play fast. Memphis is currently third and Atlanta ninth in terms of pace of play this year. Both have been efficient, ranking 10th and 11th on the season for points scored per 100 possessions. Both have also been better in that department over the last two weeks, with Memphis second in that time span at 124.6 and Atlanta not far behind – seventh at 122.7. Atlanta hasn’t been a good defensive team all season, but Memphis is also slipping in that department in recent games. So while 243.5 points is a massive total, this game features two of the fastest-paced, most efficient teams in the league that are firing on all cylinders offensively and struggling on the defensive end. If you asked me to build a matchup that could end up with 250+ points, this one would be very high up on that list.
