Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Chris Paul Over 9.5 Assists
(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It’s a great matchup here for Chris Paul against the Kings, who are 25th in defense this season. Paul has played the Kings twice this season and has gone for a whopping 16 and 19 assists in this games. My model has him for over 11 assists Friday.
Trendon Watford Over 9.5 Assists + Rebounds
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Trendon Watford has been getting huge minutes with Jerami Grant sidelined, and now with Jusuf Nurkic joining him on the bench, Watford should continue to do so. He is coming off a game with 14 R+A, and my model projects him for over 5 assists and nearly 7 rebounds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points
(-121, BetRivers)
This is a must-win game for OKC, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to have massive usage every night. He only played 26 minutes Thursday for some reason and still managed 30 points. He has at least 30 in eight of his last nine, and my model projects him for 34 Friday.
