Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The NFL playoffs are here! These are the best games of the year, especially after that horrendous college football title game. In this article, we will be going over the Saturday slate, which includes NFL Wild Card games from both conferences (we will be using both games in the same game parlay).
In the AFC, the Los Angeles Chargers will hit the road to take on the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars. This game will feature a battle of ascending superstar quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.
In the NFC, we have the Seattle Seahawks taking on division rival and NFC West champions, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are among the Super Bowl favorites, while the Seahawks are a surprise playoff team led by rejuvenated quarterback Geno Smith. I love the same game parlay I have put together below!
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the day
Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer
San Francisco 49ers Moneyline
Seattle Seahawks Team Total Under 13.5 Points
Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline
Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Odds: +869 DraftKings
The thought process behind this same game parlay is pretty simple – the San Francisco 49ers defense will dominate in a win, and the Los Angeles Chargers will go on the road and continue to feed Austin Ekeler the ball. In my opinion, the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFC (due to Jalen Hurts’ health) and Christian McCaffrey is the best offensive player on the team. In the AFC, it’s time for Justin Herbert to step up and lead the Chargers to a road victory, and he will need a ton of Ekeler to do so.
The first leg involves McCaffrey scoring an anytime TD. McCaffrey has been the focal point of the offense since joining the 49ers. He has now scored in six straight games. The 49ers offense has also scored 37+ points in three straight and are clicking as a unit at the right time. A big part of that is McCaffrey. The Seahawks defense is bottom 10 in the league in rushing touchdowns against and middle of the pack in passing touchdowns allowed. McCaffrey will have ample opportunities between rushing attempts and receptions to find the end zone.
The second and third legs of the same game parlay are correlated with each other – the Seattle Seahawks’ under 13.5 total points and the San Francisco 49ers’ moneyline. The Seahawks offense started the year on a tear but has cooled off as the year has gone on. Geno Smith has come back to life since being the talk of the league with a resurgent season. But the Seattle offense was only able to put up seven and 13 points in the regular season games against the 49ers, the seven being in San Francisco.
The 49ers defensive unit is one the best in the league, if not the best in the league, and they are healthy on all three levels. At home, they are giving up under 15 points per game, which is the best in the league. The defense is able to get pressure with four rushers and even sometimes three due to the dominance of Nick Bosa. This allows the linebacking corps to drop into coverage and help the secondary against two talented Seattle receivers, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The 49ers’ moneyline is an obvious addition to the same game parlay. I actually have the 49ers covering the -9.5 line outright, but to keep it safe we will take the moneyline.
The second game of the same game parlay involves a rematch of a game in the regular season in which the Jaguars beat down the Chargers 38-10. However, this was in Week 3, and Los Angeles was banged up and nothing like the team that will take the field Saturday evening. The narrative around the Chargers is they are overrated, and the narrative around the Jaguars is they are a fun, upstart team with an upcoming superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
However, when taking a deeper look into this matchup, it’s easy to see why the Chargers will come out on top. Los Angeles has quietly put together another solid season and is healthier entering the playoffs. They should have both star receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams available. They also have the better quarterback in this matchup in Herbert. Before a meaningless Week 18 loss, the Chargers were on a four-game winning streak and clicking on both sides of the ball.
The second part of this game is an Austin Ekeler anytime touchdown. Ekeler is a TD scoring machine. In fact, he led the league in total touchdowns with 18 (13 rushing and five receiving). Taking out a meaningless Week 18 game, Ekeler scored in four straight. A lot of talk is around the quarterback matchup in this game, but if Brandon Staley is smart (which he is), he will take the pressure off Herbert and get the ball to Ekeler especially in the red zone.
