NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Jeffery Wilson has been a more important option in his offense’s running game this season (48.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (27.9%).
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- Jeffery Wilson has picked up 54.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (76th percentile).
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Dolphins are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 96 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
