TNF Plays: Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, Week 11

The Packers vs. Titans gives us a fairly competition primetime game, hurray! While neither of these teams may be playing up to their preseason expectations, we can expect a close game considering the 3-point spread. 

The Packers are hoping to ride the momentum of a late game 31-28 overtime victory against the Cowboys. Tennessee is coming in after a close victory against the Broncos, and at 6-3 are looking to coast into the playoffs with an easy divisional schedule. 

Here’s my bet for Thursday’s game.

Aaron Jones o23.5 rec yards 

-114 Ceasars Sportsbook

Despite the fact the Titans have an easy road to the playoffs, they haven’t actually looked all that impressive this season. The good news is there’s one thing we know this Tennessee team wants to do, and that’s run the ball. Derrick Henry and this Titans offense has constantly been top 3 in rushing attempts per game in the Henry era, and this season is no different. His yards and attempts were some of the first props I looked at, but with the extremely slow pace of play I’m expecting, 22.5 attempts feels a tad high for my liking. 

Aaron Jones has had roller-coaster usage so far this season, but I’m thinking we can capitalize on the positives here today. Playing pass-catching backs in the receiving game against top run-stuffing units is one of my favorite things to do, and I think we can continue that trend here. The game most comparable for Jones in terms of a great run-stopping team with a much weaker pass defense is Washington, where Jones saw 10 targets for 53 yards.

When the traditional run games fails you, that’s when you need to get creative and still make the defense respect those short-yardage plays. Over the last couple weeks, the Titans have been toward the top of the league in pressure rate, making those quick throws even more important. While Christian Watson may be getting all the attention in the world, this is still an offensive team lacking explosive players beyond Jones. 

I expect AJ Dillon to really struggle in this game and Jones to play the role as the No. 1 here. Another positive is this really can’t be game-scripted out, considering Jones will have a huge role regardless of game flow. This is 23.5 on DraftKings/Caesars and 25.5 on FanDuel, but I expected it to be near 26.