Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-131) after it opened @ 27.5 (-120).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential target this season (70.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to notch 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has posted far more air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Juwan Johnson’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a measly 7.65 yards-per-target compared to a 9.20 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus TEs this year (63.1%).
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards