MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-131) after it opened @ 27.5 (-120).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential target this season (70.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (34.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to notch 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
- Juwan Johnson has posted far more air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Juwan Johnson’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a measly 7.65 yards-per-target compared to a 9.20 rate last year.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus TEs this year (63.1%).
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
