Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are in the thick of the college football season, and in addition to covering DFS as well as PrizePicks, I will be releasing a weekly betting article.
The purpose of this writeup is to highlight some of my favorite college football games to bet on, give you my reasoning for picking said game and direct you to the site with the softest line.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns
(Texas -7.5, O/U 64.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
TCU is having a spectacular season, and while everyone continues to wait for a letdown game, they just keep winning. This is a big time game with the ESPN College Gameday crew on hand. Defense has been optional for these teams, and the total of 64.5 may be in by halftime.
TCU is 6-2 against Texas since 2014, and the last three meetings have been decided by 10 points or less. Needless to say, this is going to be an exciting football game. Max Duggan is enjoying a breakout year and ranks fourth in FBS pass efficiency. Texas is giving up almost a 65% completion rate to opposing QBs, and they’ll be hard-pressed to contain this passing offense. Five different TCU receivers have at least three TDs this season, so good luck to the Longhorns in keying in on anyone.
Bijan Robinson versus Kendre Miller is must-see TV as well, with both RBs being over 1,000 yards rushing. The defenses in this game simply don’t have the horses to slow down either offense.
Betting Trends
- TCU is 7-2 against the spread this season.
- Texas is 3-1 against the spread this season.
Best Bets
TCU +7.5 and OVER 64.5 (+210 together)
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears
(Baylor -2.5, O/U 53.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Baylor Bears’ rushing attack is definitely it’s strength at this point in the season, and they’ll be able to exploit Kansas State’s suddenly porous defense. They’re giving up roughly 150 ypg on the ground, which includes 209 to Bijan Robinson last week. Baylor has the luxury of throwing different running backs into the mix so none of them get tired, which inevitably will prove to be too much for the Wildcats. Craig Williams, Qualan Jones and Richard Reese have all proven themselves to be starter-level talents.
Kansas State’s offense just doesn’t have the same continuity with Adrian Martinez at the helm, and it really takes away from what star RB Deuce Vaughn is able to do. A more one-dimensional offense for the Wildcats will prove to be their downfall.
Betting Trends
- Baylor is 6-3 against the spread this season.
- The over is 7-2 in Baylor’s games.
Best Bet
Baylor -2.5 (-110)
