Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 9/29)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

Jon Gray Over 4.5 K’s -145 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Rangers +100 @ Mariners -120 Total 7 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

With only eight games remaining in the 2022 season, the Texas Rangers are playing for pride, while Seattle is trying to snap its 20-year playoff drought by clinching an AL Wild Card spot — their magic number sits at three. A shoulder injury derailed Jon Gray’s career year in his first season with the Rangers, as he missed about a month of action. The right-hander returned from the IL at the beginning of September without a rehab start and was forced to build up his pitch count back up at the big-league level. While he only struck out one Guardian in his most recent outing (Cleveland has the lowest K% in baseball versus right-handed pitching), Gray was able to extend his pitch count to 87 pitches. Gray’s full workload against Cleveland puts his strikeout prop back on our short-list of reliable pitchers in the strikeout market to back, and I’ve identified an edge with his K prop opening at 4.5 Thursday night.

Gray’s 26.5% K% is a career best for him and ranks ninth overall in the American League (min 110 innings pitched). The 30-year-old righty ranks in the top 25 in Z-Contact percentage (contact on pitches made inside the strike zone), and CSW% (called strikes plus whiff rate). His swinging strike percentage ranks in the top 20 in the American League at 12%. Gray is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, featuring his fastball and slider about 86% of the time in 2022. Gray’s slider carries a 41.5% whiff% and 40.7% K%, easily his most effective strikeout pitch. In his most recent outing against the Mariners, he struck out eight, including four punchouts on his slider alone. 

For the season, Seattle has the No. 13 strikeout percentage, but their number has ticked up about one percent since August (22.9%). The Mariners don’t chase often, but they don’t make much contact when they do; posting the 11th lowest chase contact rate in baseball. The Mariners rank middle of the pack in the majority of the plate discipline stats but this isn’t a big number for Gray to hit. Gray had posted five strikeouts or more in nine straight games before injuring his shoulder. 

I’m projecting Gray to go about six innings, while punching out six Mariner batters Thursday night in Seattle. Alex Bickle’s Strikeout Model at FTN projects Gray for over five strikeouts. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market. 

Bet: Jon Gray Over 5.5 K’s -145