NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Vikings
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 15.3 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has garnered 61.5% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has generated 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (95th percentile).
Cons
- The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 57.6 plays per game.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
