NFL Long Shots: Receiving Yards Futures

I love betting on longshot season-long futures. It’s not an illness — but it’s definitely an indulgence.

I view season-long player futures more as profitable entertainments and less as hardcore investments, so when I bet in this market I tend to gravitate toward players who have longer odds (+1000 or higher).

I already have two positional pieces in my series on longshots.

In this piece, I break down eight pass catchers I’m betting on to lead the league in receiving based on what I see in our 2021 FTN player projections, the best odds available in our Prop Shop Tool, and the implied probabilities that accompany the odds (easily accessed via our new Betting Odds Calculator).

To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including a side or total for every Week 1 game — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.

Davante Adams odds – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 1,358 yards
Best odds: +1300 at FanDuel
Implied probability: 7.14%

The best line I can find in the market for Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, and DeAndre Hopkins is +1000. For Tyreek Hill, it’s +1200. And yet Davante Adams is available at +1300. That doesn’t make sense.

Most sharp projection sets have these five wide receivers tiered together, so I’m more than happy to invest in the cheapest of them — especially when Adams led the entire NFL last year with 98.1 yards receiving per game.

I’m not saying he should have the shortest odds of the quintet, but Adams definitely shouldn’t have notably longer odds than anyone else in the group. Last year, he was the No. 1 in the league with a 35% market share of first-read targets (per our Advanced Receiving Stats).

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Travis Kelce odds – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 1,315 yards
Best odds: +1500 at Caesars
Implied probability: 6.25%

Not once in NFL history has a tight end led the league in receiving — but Travis Kelce was close last year. Despite sitting out Week 17, Kelce finished the year No. 2 with 1,416 yards receiving, and entering the final week of the season he was just 43 yards behind Diggs for the league lead.

Kelce was especially prolific in the second half of the season. Starting in Week 8, Kelce had 1,275 yards receiving on 129 targets in his final 11 games (including playoffs). If he manages to carry that usage with him into 2021, he will absolutely challenge the receiving crown once again.

Kelce is one of Eliot Crist’s 10 players to draft in Rounds 1-5.

Justin Jefferson odds – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 1,300 yards
Best odds: +1500 at Caesars
Implied probability: 6.25%

It’s easy to be bullish on Justin Jefferson. Last year, he had the most receiving yards in NFL history for a rookie with 1,400, and he could enjoy a secondary breakout this season given that he was only No. 18 in 2020 with 125 targets.

He opened last year as the primary slot receiver for the Vikings and underwhelmed in that role, but after moving to the perimeter in Week 3 he flashed with a top-three mark of 95 yards per game.

If wide receiver Adam Thielen regresses and if tight end Irv Smith Jr. fails to progress, then Jefferson could push for 10-plus targets per game.

If you’re lucky enough to have the top pick in your fantasy drafts, Jefferson is an ideal receiver to snag at the turn of Rounds 2-3.

D.J. Moore – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 1,221 yards
Best odds: +4000 at Caesars
Implied probability: 2.44%

Oh, baby. I am very, very much on D.J. Moore this year. He’s one of my favorite breakout wide receivers.

Here’s what I wrote about Moore in my 2021 fantasy football rankings article:

“Think of all the great receivers in the league. We are in a golden era of wide receiver play. Out of all those elite players, only one has managed to go over 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons — and that’s D.J. Moore. And he’s done it while catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater, Phillip Walker, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, and Cam Newton. He’s entering his prime at just 24 years old, and he could have more targets and advantageous usage coming his way this year now that Curtis Samuel is gone. His upside is massive.”

Ridley might disagree with me …

But, I think Moore is a top-tier receiver. As Adam Pfeifer has noted in his stellar ADP Decisions series, Moore has a developmental curve that gives him top-10 fantasy upside this year. I think this is the season Moore breaks into the upper echelon of fantasy receivers.

Tee Higgins – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 939 yards
Best odds: +8000 at Caesars
Implied probability: 1.23%

Tee Higgins is one of Jeff Ratcliffe’s 15 players to target in fantasy football drafts — and Jeff ain’t wrong.

As much as we all like wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, he hasn’t played football in over a year, and he’s a rookie, so Higgins has a good chance to lead the Bengals in targets.

A dominant player in college, Higgins flashed as a rookie with 908 yards receiving last year, and he was especially good after the first month of the season, averaging 90.2 yards receiving across his five full games with quarterback Joe Burrow in that span before the passer’s season-ending knee injury (per our new Fantasy Splits Tool).

The five-game sample is small, but it speaks to Higgins’ upside as a progressing receiver with Burrow at quarterback.

Brandin Cooks – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 1,049 yards
Best odds: +10000 at PointsBet
Implied probability: 0.99%

Not every guy who leads the league in receiving is an obvious baller. Sometimes a guy seemingly comes from nowhere to dominate. Think back to 2010, when Brandon Lloyd led the league with 1,448 yards receiving on 153 targets for a pass-heavy Broncos team with a 4-12 record.

We could see something similar with Brandin Cooks in 2021. The Texans have a league-low win total of 4 at DraftKings and will likely need to throw the ball frequently in a come-from-behind game script.

After Cooks, the Texans have no established wide receivers: Will Fuller departed in free agency, Randall Cobb just returned to the Packers via trade, and Anthony Miller (shoulder) is dealing with an injury of unknown severity.

Cooks could be filthy with targets this year, and in the six seasons following his rookie year, he has five 1,000-yard receiving campaigns. Cooks is one of my 10 favorite upside fantasy wide receivers this year.

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Michael Gallup – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 942 yards
Best odds: +20000 at PointsBet
Implied probability: 0.5%

I love Amari Cooper, but …

… are we sure he’s all that much better than Michael Gallup?

If Cooper (ankle) enters the season at less than 100% health and if CeeDee Lamb fails to progress in his second season, then Gallup could end up being the No. 1 receiver in a dynamic pass-heavy offense.

Of all wide receivers last year with 100-plus targets, Gallup was No. 12 with an average depth of target of 11.9 yards. With that kind of usage, he could have some massive performances with Dak Prescott back at quarterback.

Gallup is one of Eliot Crist’s five must-draft wide receivers.

JuJu Smith-Schuster – Most receiving yards 2021

FTN projection: 821 yards
Best odds: +20000 at PointsBet
Implied probability: 0.5%

In Ep. 3 of the Primetime Fantasy Football podcast, high-stakes dominators Nelson Sousa and Matthew Davis talk about some of the reasons they are bullish on JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2021.

Smith-Schuster is not yet 25 years old, he has a 1,439-yard season to his name, and for his career, he has a respectable mark of 8.3 yards per target (including postseason). For reference: That’s the exact same average Adams has had over the past half-decade.

In 17 games last year (again, including playoffs) Smith-Schuster had 110 receptions on 147 targets. If in 2021 he enjoys similar usage and regresses toward career-average efficiency, Smith-Schuster could have a massive campaign.

Smith-Schuster is one of Nelson’s mid-round fantasy draft targets.

To get all of Nelson’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.