The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/16)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Red Sox (-110), Yankees (-110)
Total: 9.5 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Domingo Germán (R)

Three things to know

These two offenses could be tough to contend with. Boston clicks in sixth in team wOBA (.329), while the Yankees have been solid at 13th (.316).
Domingo Germán’s xFIP (4.44) lines up nicely with his ERA (4.39). The righty has been mediocre with 1.78 HR/9 causing him some issues.
Eduardo Rodríguez has been far better from an advanced indicator perspective (3.37 xFIP) than his ERA (5.52) indicates, thanks to a whopping 27.0% strikeout rate.

Best bets: The books see this one as a toss-up, but if you get any juice on the Boston side, I would take it. German has been average at best lately. Watch out as this game is up in the air due to COVID-19 protocols.

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Padres (-136), Nationals (+116)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chris Paddack (R) vs. Erick Fedde (R)

Three things to know

The Nationals caught fire just before the break, and they only sit six games back in the NL East. Some rotation help could put them in line to make some noise in the division.
Both teams are excellent at the dish, but surprisingly, the Nationals sit 11th in team wOBA, and the Padres sit just behind them in 12th.
Erick Fedde has been a bit up and down this season — while he is averaging nearly a K per inning, he has a 6.20 ERA in the last month.

Best bets: The OVER. While the park isn’t necessarily a huge run-scoring environment, Washington’s home stadium has ranked in the top-10 in home run factor the last few years. With these marginal arms on the bump, expect there to be fireworks.

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Rangers (+194), Blue Jays (-235)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jordan Lyles (R) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

Three things to know

The Robbie Ray resurgence/tight pants tour continues into the second half. Ray has been outstanding this season thanks to a career-best first-pitch strike rate.
If the Jays can find a little bit of pitching, they will be tough. They rank second in team wOBA (.335), and their 21.9% strikeout rate is among the league’s elite.
The Rangers are a great betting and DFS target, and not in a good way. While Joey Gallo is enjoying an outstanding season (24 HR, 6 SB), the Rangers rank 24th in team wOBA.

Best bets: The Jays are making a play to return to their home digs, which remains to be seen with the Delta variant rising in the U.S. For now, enjoy the homey goodness of Sahlen Field — a same-game parlay of the Jays F3/F5 or a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run prop are juicy.

Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Rays (+116), Braves (-134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Michael Wacha (R) vs. Charlie Morton (R)

Three things to know

The Braves made a move over the break to acquire Joc Pederson — with Ronald Acuña Jr. out, this team was looking to add some pop as they are not out of this picture just yet.
It will be interesting to see how this lineup stacks up without Acuna. Look for Ehire Adrianza or Abraham Almonte to occupy the top of the lineup.
After struggling out of the gates, Charlie Morton has been a boss. Over the last month, the veteran right-hander has logged 33 innings, recording a 1.91 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with 39 whiffs.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay here. Wacha has been up-and-down, and Morton has been outstanding. I would also consider a Morton strikeout prop if you get a number at 6.5.

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Astros (-138), White Sox (+118)
Total: 8.5 runs
Lance McCullers Jr. (R) vs. Dylan Cease (R)

Three things to know

Two of the game’s best young right-handers take the mound tonight, and runs could be hard to come by — McCullers has a 2.94 ERA in 79.2 innings this season, and Cease has been a breakout star with 117 whiffs in 92 innings.
Cease has hit a bit of a wall lately — he’s been touched for a 6.04 ERA in the last month.
By nearly any metric, these are the two best offenses in baseball. They rank in the top five in wOBA and wRC+, and are both tough to strike out.

Best bets: I like offense here — I am taking the OVER. I don’t like Cease’s recent form.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Dodgers (-200), Rockies (+168)
Total: 11.5 runs
Julio Urías (L) vs. Antonio Senzatela (R)

Three things to know

If you are looking to stack an offense in any form, it’s the Dodgers. Their implied team total of 6.58 runs is far ahead of anyone else’s on the slate.
It’s no secret that summer lovin’ leads to some high-scoring affairs — and it’s gonna be toasty in suburban Denver. With temperatures soaring into the 90s, this could be an offensive show.
Senzatela won’t be confused with Cy Young, but he is decent — over the last month, the ground-ball specialist owns a 3.75 ERA over 24 innings pitched.

Best bets: As crazy as this number is, I love the OVER. Warm weather and a strong offense give me plenty of reasons to believe.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Mariners (+134), Angels (-158)
Total: 8.5 runs
Chris Flexen (R) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)

Three things to know

Jarred Kelenic makes his return to the Mariners, and hopefully he fares better this time around. He logged only a .185 OBP in his first 83 at-bats.
Chris Flexen has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month — he fired seven scoreless innings in his last start, and he owns a 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in the last month.
Andrew Heaney is a curious case — his 5.38 ERA is ugly, but his 3.85 xFIP is far better. He’s been bitten big-time by the home run bug, allowing 1.64 HR/9 this season.

Best bets: I actually like the Mariners here — Heaney has really struggled, so a F3/F5 or Moneyline bet on the dog makes for an intriguing option.

Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Indians (+172), Athletics (-205)
Total: 8.5 runs
Eli Morgan (R) vs. Chris Bassitt (R)

Three things to know

Chris Bassitt is a 10-game winner, and he has been outstanding this season. He’s rocking a 24.5% strikeout rate and 3.28 ERA.
The Oakland offense was previously inside the top five, but it has hit the skids over the last month. Currently, it clocks in at 14th (.312).
Meanwhile, the Cleveland offense has stunk all year — they rank ninth worst in the league in wOBA (.303), and their 7.9% walk rate is one of the worst in the league as well.

Best bets: A same-game parlay makes too much sense — Bassitt has been among the league’s elite, and Morgan has not been anywhere close to that.

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Cubs (-148), Diamondbacks (+126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Kyle Hendricks (R) vs. Madison Bumgarner (L)

Three things to know

Kyle Hendricks struggled, specifically with home runs, to begin the year, but he’s been a boss recently. He owns a 10-1 record since May 1.
You know who hasn’t been a boss? Madison Bumgarner — he is whiffing better than a batter per inning, but his 5.73 ERA in 59.2 innings is ugly.
Sans Ketel Marte, this is a bad Arizona offense. They already rank in the bottom five in wOBA and wRC+, and their .140 ISO is also egregious.

Best bets: A same-game parlay to close out the day — the Cubs may be sellers, but they should be able to knock around Bumgarner, and Hendricks has been awesome.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)