College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
The month of June is always a bit of a dead period in the sports data and analytics industry. You have the NBA playoffs winding down, MLB is approaching its All-Star Game, and everyone is gearing up for football season.
Football is still king in this industry. Whether we are talking fantasy, sports betting, or just overall fan engagement in general. Other sports have followings, but those followings are only a fraction of the following football has. In the local Tipico Sportsbook markets you will find rabid fans of the Nets, 76ers, Knicks, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Flyers, Rangers, Devils and Islanders. The biggest followings though belong to the Eagles, Jets and Giants. Those are the teams we are going to discuss today.
Tipico Sportsbook recently released the win totals for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. If you live in the tri-state area, your favorite team’s win total is 6.5. How do I know that? Well, the Jets, Giants and Eagles are all listed at 6.5 wins for this season, so it’s very easy to make that statement. While they do all have the same number of wins for their prop, the payouts are very different on each, so let’s dive into them and see if there is any value in those numbers.
How many wins will the New York Jets have in 2021?
The Jets number is at 6.5, but you are being offered a plus-money bet to take the over and -140 to take the under. I love the under here. I like the draft and offseason the Jets had. I like the coaching change. I think they are moving in the right direction. That said, you don’t fix a disaster in one offseason. Make no mistake, fellow Gang Green fans, the Jets were a disaster. The team had one of the worst offensive lines, one of the least productive running games, and a defense that has more holes in it than a low-budget wiffle ball. They did a good job of filling some and beefing up the line on both sides of the ball, but the talent level is just not there. The Jets have three teams in their division projected for 9 or more wins. A lot of that has to do with the oddsmakers expecting most of them to beat the Jets at least once and probably twice during the year. The Jets will lose both to a very good Buffalo team, and I do not see them being favored against the Dolphins or Patriots either. At best they pull off a single upset and go 1-5 in division. They do have some soft opponents like the Jags this year, but looking over the schedule, even giving them the benefit of the doubt, I have a hard time finding 5, let alone 6 or 7 wins to get them to the over. The -140 juice is a massive number to the under here. It implies the chance of staying under is 58.3%. I still think there is value in this number. If we cannot figure out where the five wins come from and they would need two more than that to cash, it makes sense to take the under. Sorry to say this fellow Jets fans, but 2021 is a lot like every year since 1970. It’s not our turn to shine yet.
Are the Giants better than the Eagles?
As for the NFC East duo of the Eagles and Giants, I’m not as high on taking either of those teams at or below 6.5 wins. Remember this was the worst division in football last year. No one was good, and we had to wait until the end of the season to figure out which of the four bad teams was least bad and going to win the division. Every team in this division made some moves in the offseason, but none really has me expecting them to all of a sudden compete for the Super Bowl. In fact, the Giants are +380 to even win the division and the Eagles are longer odds at +450. They are the two lowest-priced teams in the NFC East — both are being given only about a 30% chance or less to make the playoffs with the Giants at +220 (31%) to make it and the Eagles at +260 (27%). Last year, seven wins in this division was a massive ask, but at least one of these teams will do it this year with an extra game. The question is, will that be the Giants or Eagles? As a Jets fan, I’ve sat by and watched my Eagles and Giants fan friends have this argument over and over again. I will say, based on the odds, the Giants fans have a better argument here as the books have their over 6.5 wins at -170 for an implied probability of 62.9%. The Eagles are only -150 to win 6.5 or more, which is an implied probability of 60%. The good news is both are way more likely than the Jets to get to 7 wins by all accounts and books. Unfortunately for all of us in the area, none of these teams are expected to be good or probably to even make the playoffs. Look on the bright side though Giants and Eagles fans: At least you are not the Jets.
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