NFL Player Props – Betting value on these three players


Every day, PointsBet Sportsbook has released new player prop lines for the 2021 NFL season. Some numbers may appear high, but it is important to remember there is an extra game this year with the NFL moving to a 17-game schedule instead of 16. Passing props, receiving props, rushing props and touchdown props continue to leak out every day, and there is an advantage to getting in on these early before the book adjusts. Just a few days ago, I wrote about Julio Jones over 5.5 touchdowns at -143 and it has already jumped to -170. There are more lines to take advantage of.

(If rookies are more your thing, BetMGM has more rookie prop bets available than any other book as well.)

Kyler Murray betting props

Over 675.5 rushing yards (-110 PointsBet)

I don’t understand this number — even if Murray were to miss a few games, he should still sail over this total. He finished with 819 yards last season and now gets an extra game. He averaged 51 rushing yards per game, with 10 games of eight-plus rush attempts, failing to have more than five attempts only once in a game … and that was a Week 17 game where he only played half. Murray is a dynamic player in the open field, with 42% of his yards coming on explosive runs (15-plus yards), which was the third-highest rate in the league after Lamar Jackson and J.K. Dobbins. His speed and quickness make for defensive nightmares once they turn their back and he has open space. There is no reason to think that stops — and no reason not to bet the over on his rushing yards this season. 

Derrick Henry betting props

Over 1450.5 rushing yards (PointsBet)

This is an absurdly high number, but Henry is coming off a 2,000-yard season and the Titans offense just got scarier with the addition Julio Jones. NFL teams are going to have to make a decision whether they are going to try and take away Henry or Jones and A.J. Brown. In 2021, no matter how good a running back might be, the decision for NFL teams should be to take away the passing game. The Titans faced on average 7.1 defenders in the box — if that number dips with the addition of Jones, it could mean even more production for Henry, who has averaged 5.3 yards per carry against teams with six men in the box. The volume is unlikely to go anywhere and while you are paying a big number, most median projections still have him comfortably over this. Worth a unit. 

DeVonta Smith Betting Props

Over 749.5 receiving yards (BetMGM)

The competition for Smith to step in on day one and be the top target in this offense is very light. Zach Ertz is a shell of himself, Dallas Goedert isn’t going to command 30% of the targets, Jalen Reagor struggled early, and the rest of the cupboard is bare. If we conservatively estimate 17% of the target share and put a minimum target of 60 (account for injuries) on the FTN air yards tool, we have a player pool of 51 people from 2020, and 42 of those receivers went for over 750.5 yards. Smith’s prop number should be closer to 900 than 700, and we are getting a discount because people are worried about his size. I have no concerns about his ability to translate an all-time great college season into a productive rookie year. 

(Get all my NFL betting picks here)

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