Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are going to have plenty of decisions to make on Thursday’s six-game NBA DFS slate. There are three or four high-end center options that are all in fantastic spots, but you also have James Harden, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo available, which will make roster construction very interesting this evening.
Let’s take a game-by-game look at Thursday’s slate.
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Dallas Mavericks @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -5, total: 227.5
Luka Doncic showed his brilliance last game, scoring 31 points to go along with 10 rebounds, eight assists and a buzzer-beating game-winner against the Celtics. With Kristaps Porzingis once again out with a back injury, Doncic once again dominated the usage for the Mavericks, who is sporting a near 33% usage rate over the last two games. And with KP off the floor this season, Luka is sporting a massive 37.5% usage rate, 24% assist rate and 26% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.57 fantasy points per minute in the split. This definitely isn’t the best matchup in the world, but Luka is seemingly always in play when under $11,000 on DraftKings, especially if Dallas remains without Porzingis. Meanwhile, on top of Porzings, Maxi Kleber is also questionable. Kleber missed the last game with an ankle injury. Dallas started Luka, Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, James Johnson and Dwight Powell against the Celtics. Johnson logged 28 minutes last game and can quietly put together some peripherals when given more run. If both players are once again out, he’d be worth a look as a value option, as he’s sporting a respectable 17% rebounding rate with KP off the floor this season. And while I don’t play him very often, I wouldn’t hate Tim Hardaway at $4,800 if Porzingis is out. He sees a 1.4% bump in usage with Porzingis off the floor this season, jumping to a 24% clip. The 76ers can be had by shooting guards and rank 25th against shooters and 23rd against the bench archetype, per our advanced DvP tool. Philadelphia is also coughing up a league-leading 6.4 points per game to shooters off screens, as well as the second-worst field goal percentage off the play type (44.8%). Hardaway, meanwhile, is averaging nearly 2.0 points per game off screens this year.
For the 76ers, Joel Embiid is coming off a down game, yet still scored 18 points and 12 rebounds. Embiid uncharacteristically shot 3-of-13 from the field but his price has come back down below $10,000 on DK. I love him here, facing a Dallas team that is coughing up a 68.1% field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket, good for the third-worst rate in the league. And while Philadelphia doesn’t run the pick and roll at a massive rate, when they do, Embiid could have his way here, as Dallas is surrendering the fifth-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (8.7). The rest of this team, however, isn’t all that enticing, mainly because they are priced right at their ceiling. Tobias Harris has been playing great and probably should have been an All-Star over Ben Simmons. However, there are other players at his price range that I prefer on this slate. Simmons, meanwhile, has been a bit more aggressive as of late, attempting double-digit shots in each of his last three games. He’ll give you a very high floor at $8,700 but he’s not a priority on this slate for me.
Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks
NYK -1.5, total: 222.5
Julius Randle has been the only player from New York I’ve really been interested in as of late, but that might change here. Elfrid Payton is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury, which should open some things up in this backcourt. Head coach Tom Thibodeau has been playing Payton, Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley meaningful minutes since Rose was acquired. Of course, given their history, it isn’t shocking to see Rose logging more minutes than the impressive Quickley, and I’d bet he sees more minutes again in this game. Rose has always been a high-usage player and that hasn’t changed during his second stint in New York, as he’s sporting a 27.3% usage rate since joining the team, while averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute. This is an elite matchup, as the Kings rank dead last against dimers, primary ball handlers and scorers on the season. Sacramento is also allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage on shots from the short mid-range (44.6%), which is essentially the free throw line distance. That bodes well for Rose, as 34% of his field goal attempts since joining the Knicks have come from that part of the floor, one of the highest rates in the league. At $4,600 with Payton out and in arguably the best matchup in fantasy, Rose has 40-point upside on this slate. Of course, you can safely go back to Randle, too, who has earned himself an All-Star bid. The floor is so high for Randle, who is still averaging a strong 82.2 touches per game this season, good for the 12th-most in all of basketball. He’s one of just three power forwards/centers inside the top-20 in that department, while his 3.6 isolation points per game trail only Joel Embiid among true centers/power forwards. The Kings, meanwhile, are allowing 8.3 isolation points per game on the year, the second-most in basketball. Finally, RJ Barrett is cheap enough ($5,500) that you can definitely take a shot on him, especially in this spot, but I am still tempering expectations.
This is a massive pace-down spot for the Kings, as New York plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, while ranking inside the top-five in defensive rating, too. Having said that, no one on Sacramento stands out as top tier plays for me tonight. De'Aaron Fox isn’t a bad play at $7,800 given his volume and potential assists, but this isn’t a good matchup, while we are starting to see Tyrese Haliburton take on a larger role as of late. And while he’s been great, scoring 48 and 52 fantasy points over the last two games, $6,600 is a bit much for him in this spot. Richaun Holmes has been back in the lineup for a few games now but he’s played more than 26 minutes since Feb. 7, making him riskier than usual.
Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets
BRK -7.5, total: 226.5
Kevin Durant is still out for the Nets, which means James Harden ($10,800 on DraftKings) is still probably too cheap — all the guy has done over the last six games is average 29.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 12.2 assists and 65.9 fantasy points per game. Over the last 10 games, Harden’s 91.4 touches per game are good for the sixth-most in basketball, while his 8.8 minutes of possession per game during that span is fourth-best in the league. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving is a perfectly fine play at $8,900 with Durant still sidelined. He has been playing way more off ball since Harden joined the team, but he’s still been taking plenty of shots and over the last two weeks with Durant off the floor, Kyrie is sporting a 32.5% usage rate, while averaging 1.35 fantasy points per minute. I also don’t hate Joe Harris here at $5,500. He won’t have a massive usage rate or anything but he’s still going to get a handful of shots up, all of which are high quality. Harris is averaging 2.6 points per game off screens this season, good for the seventh-most in the league, while the Magic are coughing up the fifth-most points per game off the play type (5.4).
For Orlando, it is really just Nikola Vucevic for me here. At $10,000, Vucevic is still a fantastic option, facing a Brooklyn defense that ranks 28th against point forwards, 29th against rebounders, 22nd against skilled centers and 27th against scorers, while no team in basketball is allowing more points per game to the post (7.5). Vucevic, meanwhile, leads the NBA in post-ups per game over the last 10 games (13.7).
Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies
LAC -8, total: 226.5
In all honesty, I really don’t like this game. I understand that there are only six games on the slate, but sometimes a game just isn’t one you are excited about. For the Clippers, both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are slightly underpriced on DraftKings and both should continue to provide a high combination of floor and ceiling. Both players are hovering around a 30% usage rate on the season, as the Clippers offense continues to run through this duo. Memphis is a decent matchup, especially for George, as they are surrendering the second-most points per possession off screens on the year (1.10), as well as the sixth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (43.3%). George, meanwhile, is fifth in the league in points per game off screens (5.7).
The only player I’m somewhat enticed by from Memphis is Jonas Valanciunas at $7,000. He should play around 29-32 minutes, which is more than enough for a player that is averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season.
Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -7, total: 237
Jamal Murray appears to be back to bubble form, as he’s been getting it done as of late. Over his last six games, Murray is averaging 31.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 51.4 fantasy points per game. When he’s hot like this, Murray is someone you want to continue getting exposure to, especially in a great matchup like tonight’s, as he faces the Wizards. Washington is coughing up 6.7 points per game off handoffs this season, good for the second-most in basketball. Murray, meanwhile, is averaging the third-most such points per game on the year (3.1), while shooting an impressive 50% off the play type. I’m definitely going back to Murray again tonight, while Nikola Jokic is always in play, especially when he’s a couple hundred dollars underpriced over on DraftKings. Michael Porter has tournament-winning upside but also a scary floor, as his minutes haven’t been consistent, even with both Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green out. If stacking this game up or running a ton of lineups, he is someone you’ll probably want to mix in, however, especially since he played 40 minutes last game.
For Washington, both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are a bit too cheap. Westbrook has recorded three triple-doubles over his last five games and in the two games he failed to accomplish the feat, he was one rebound and one assist shy. He should be much closer to $10,000 on DraftKings and he could find success at the rim, facing a Denver team that is surrendering the highest field goal percentage in basketball from within four feet of the basket. Beal, meanwhile, is a lock for 20 field goal attempts, as he’s reached that mark in seven of his last 10 games. He also still leads the NBA in usage rate and makes for a very strong play once again.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -9, total: 240
Feel free to continue plugging Giannis Antetokounmpo into your lineups, as he’s locked in right now. Giannis has now scored at least 53 fantasy points in eight consecutive games, going for 60-plus in seven. His rebounding rate is through the roof right now, while his 17.4 rebounding chances per game are good for the 10th-most in all of basketball. Giannis is also converting a whopping 68.4% of his rebounding opportunities into boards. The Pelicans also struggle to protect the paint, as they are coughing up a 67.3% field goal percentage at the rim this season, the fourth-worst rate in basketball. Meanwhile, with Jrue Holiday unlikely to play again, Khris Middleton remains in play, though he’s been mostly disappointing as of late.
Zion Williamson is on a tear right now, as he continues to score at will. Williamson has shot at least 50% from the field in each of his last 10 games, while the peripherals have been much better as of late, unlocking a higher ceiling in fantasy. He has at least four assists in eight of his last 10 games, as the Pelicans are actually letting him handle the ball out of the pick and roll at a decent clip as of late. A matchup with Giannis should keep Zion around the rim and will give him potential for stocks, which he hasn’t even been all that active in yet this season. I also think Brandon Ingram, who is coming off a 50.7 fantasy point outing, is too cheap at $7,900 on DraftKings. Milwaukee’s defense hasn’t been as good this season and they are still playing at a fairly high pace.
