WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
It may be Super Bowl Sunday, but the NBA still has a DFS slate for our consideration.
We have a modest five-game slate over the course of the entire day for anyone who is looking for an appetizer before the sporting entree Sunday night.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers
UTA -4.5, total: 224.5
The Jazz are a lot more interesting than usual Sunday, as point guard Mike Conley has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Conley suffered the injury Friday night and left after 20 minutes. We’ll likely see Donovan Mitchell slide over to the point and Joe Ingles enter the starting lineup, while Jordan Clarkson will also see a bump in minutes and usage off the bench. Whenever one of the Utah ball handlers is sidelined, Ingles intrigues me in fantasy because he plays a lot of point forward, especially when playing alongside Mitchell. With Conley off the floor this season, Ingles’ assist rate jumps up to a strong 21% mark, easily the highest rate on the team. He is also averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split and he touched the basketball a solid 67 times last game. That is up from the 50.8 touches per game he averages for the season and keep in mind that Conley still played 20 minutes in that last contest. Ingles recorded 11 assists in 28 minutes, posting 29 assist points created. The veteran is a very solid play, while Mitchell obviously stands out, too. He is sporting a 31.2% usage rate with Conley off the floor this season, while averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Bojan Bodganovic, meanwhile, has been red hot as of late, averaging 22.8 points per game over his last six outings, while shooting over 57% from beyond the arc. If I were to fade anyone from this team, it would be him, as he’s bound to come back down to earth soon, while the peripherals, despite last game’s totals, are rarely there with him.
Clarkson, like Ingles, is a very solid mid-range play at $5,700 on DraftKings. He could play up to 30 minutes in this game, which is huge considering he averages 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Conley off the floor, while sporting a solid 25.4% usage rate. The Pacers are a solid overall defensive unit, but they do rank 25th against opposing bench players, according to our advanced DVP. Finally, this isn’t the greatest matchup for Rudy Gobert but at $7,300, he’ll provide you with a very safe floor, as he’s recorded double-digit rebounds in 20-of-23 games this season.
Indiana, meanwhile, isn’t quite as exciting. Both Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are cheaper than usual because they are both coming off uncharacteristically terrible games, but we know better days are obviously ahead. Sabonis and Brogdon still rank second (98.2) and fourth (92.0) in touches per game, respectively, while the matchup is enhanced a bit with Conley out. When he’s off the floor this season, Utah’s defensive rating drops from 105.08 to 119.62. I also like Myles Turner in a GPP here. His price has come way down to $6,100 and he’ll always be around the paint in this matchup, facing Gobert, who is averaging 11.3 paint touches per game this year, the third-most in the league. Turner has also been the league’s best shot-blocker this season, averaging 3.7 blocks per game. There will be potential for more blocks here, facing a Utah team that is averaging 53.3 drives to the basket per game, good for the fourth-most in the league. Jeremy Lamb, meanwhile, is off my radar, as his minutes have come down a bit as of late with T.J. McConnell playing so well off the bench. The backup point guard has logged at least 26 minutes in each of his last four games, while posting assist totals of 8, 7, 12 and 15.
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks
MIA -5.5, total: 211.5
Goran Dragic has been ruled out for this game for Miami after suffering an ankle injury. Kendrick Nunn had once again been out of the rotation prior to exploding for 25 points and eight rebounds against the Wizards Friday and with Avery Bradley also out, Nunn should be in line for more minutes. He still is tough to fully trust in cash games but considering he is sporting a solid 25.2% usage rate with Dragic off the floor this season, Nunn is worth a look in tournaments. Tyler Herro should also see more ball-handling duties, while his minutes will remain solidified with Dragic out. He’s averaging just under a fantasy point per minute with Dragic off the court and while this isn’t an exciting matchup, Herro is more than viable, especially since he’s under $7,000 on DraftKings. Finally, if choosing between Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, it will once again be the former. I just think Bam remains a bit too expensive at $9,000 on DraftKings, especially in a slow-paced game against a strong New York defensive unit. Butler, meanwhile, has scored at least 44.5 fantasy points in all four games since returning to the lineup.
Despite how great he’s been all year but especially as of late. Immanuel Quickley has now played under 15 minutes in each of his last two games. Head coach Tom Thibodeau can be tough to trust with rookies and just when you think Quickley’s minutes are locked in, Thibs pools the rug right out from under you. To be fair, Elfrid Payton, who remains in the starting lineup, has played well during those two games, averaging 21 points, four assists and 7.5 assists. If Payton is back to playing 33-35 minutes each night, he’s too cheap at $4,500 on DraftKings and would make for an ideal value play, especially on a smaller slate like this. There is still some risk associated with this backcourt right now, however, while there is none with Julius Randle, who is averaging just under 37 minutes per game on the season, while averaging 23 points, 10.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game.
Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets
No odds posted
Charlotte got Terry Rozier back the other night but watched Devonte' Graham leave the game with a groin injury. Graham has been ruled out against the Wizards, meaning LaMelo Ball will likely return to the starting five and man the point guard position. Ball is coming off a career game, scoring 34 points on 27 shots against the Jazz, while adding four rebounds and eight assists. He touched the ball 90 times in that game and logged close to 40 minutes. The price has come up to nearly $8,000 on DK, but how can you not like him here? With Graham off the floor this season, Ball is sporting a 24.7% usage rate to go along with matching rebound and assist rates (22%). He is also averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute and gets to face a Washington defense that ranks 26th against primary ball handlers and 21st against dimers. The Wizards also lead the NBA in pace, which is great for a player like Ball to get steals and get out in transition. Rozier also makes for an elite mid-range play with Graham out. His usage rate should be solid while he could take upwards of 20 shots in this game, The Wizards are also coughing up the second-highest field goal percentage (47.5%) and fourth-most points per possession (1.11) to opposing shooters off screens this season, while Rozier is averaging 1.8 points per game off screens on the year, a top-20 mark in basketball. Gordon Hayward, meanwhile, has been priced up to $8,000 on DK, but I am more than willing to pay that price tag for him here. He has a 26% usage rate with Graham off the court this season, while averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute. Hayward also leads the Hornets in transition points per game on the season (5.4), a number that is good enough for seventh-best in all of basketball. Facing this Wizards team that leads the league in pace, there should be plenty of transition opportunities for Hayward.
Despite coming off an atrocious game Friday night, Russell Westbrook is still too cheap at $8,900 on DraftKings. The same can be said for Bradley Beal, who has been arguably the best scorer in basketball this season. Sure, he is coming off a 1-for-14 showing, but that is clearly an outlier and now his price tag has dropped to $9,300. Don’t be surprised if Beal gets hot from downtown against this zone-heavy Charlotte team, especially since 40.4% of the points scored against the Hornets this season have come from beyond the arc, the third-highest rate in basketball. If I were choosing one more member of this Washington team it would probably be Rui Hachimura, who is locked into very strong minutes at the moment. If he plays any small ball five in this matchup, he could take advantage of a slower, weaker interior defense.
Boston Celtics @ Phoenix Suns
PHX -3, total: 217.5
Jayson Tatum has been a high-usage player all year long, and that only continued last game with Jaylen Brown out. Tatum posted a near 35% usage rate in that last game and possessed the ball for 6.4 minutes. He’s now been well over 50 fantasy points in each of his last two games and with Brown ruled out again, Tatum still has to be on your radar, even at an elevated price tag against a good Phoenix defense. With Brown off the floor this season, Tatum is sporting a massive 35.3% usage rate while averaging 1.42 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, in a more limited but still notable sample size, Kemba Walker has a usage rate north of 38% with Brown off the floor and actually eclipsed 30 minutes in his last game. If he can play 32 minutes again here, he’d likely be worth his $6,800 price tag on DraftKings, especially with Marcus Smart also still out for the Celtics. If you’re looking for value, Grant Williams got the start Friday night and although he’s a low-usage player, he still played around 32 minutes and scored just over 20 fantasy points.
For Phoenix, Devin Booker’s price is all the way down to $7,400 on DK, but I’d still rather just play Chris Paul for $300 more. He’s been the better fantasy producer this season and with Cameron Payne once again ruled out, Booker’s value actually takes a hit, as it leads to more minutes for Paul and less minutes for Booker to run the offense and facilitate. He’s still been scoring the basketball well but is sporting an awful 8% usage rate with CP3 on the floor this season, while his assists per game have dropped from 6.5 to 3.6 per game. Cam Johnson, meanwhile, came off the bench for the first time in nine games on Friday, as Frank Kaminsky started at power forward, possibly to try to match Detroit’s size with Blake Griffin and Mason Plumlee. With Boston likely to start both Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson here, Kaminsky could actually start again and be worth a look as a value play.
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -8.5, total: 228.5
The Kings are playing good basketball right now, largely due to their duo at the guard position. De'Aaron Fox is playing like an All-Star lately, averaging 26.3 points, 8.0 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game over his last six outings. He warrants his price tag, for sure, but I likely won’t get to him in this spot, as he’s averaging fewer than 30 fantasy points in two meetings with the Clippers this season. Sure, Patrick Beverley will once again be out, but I prefer other spend-up options on this slate. Meanwhile, rookie Tyrese Haliburton has been awesome and helped the Kings win against Denver Saturday, scoring 23 points to go along with four rebounds and six assists. He continues to come off the bench, but Haliburton has now closed 10 straight games for Sacramento and makes the most of his underwhelming usage with tremendous efficiency. Because he continues to close games, Marvin Bagley’s minutes have remained in the low 20s, making him extremely risky in fantasy right now, despite how tempting the potential upside is. Finally, Richaun Holmes is my favorite play from this team, as he is simply too cheap at $5,600 on DK. Holmes will play 30-plus minutes once again here and is sporting a solid 26% rebounding rate on the year, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute.
Play Kawhi Leonard. It really is that simple. Paul George has been ruled out, and even if George was active, Kawhi would be my top play of this slate. Sacramento cannot defend scoring wings and really struggle in isolation defense, coughing up the second-most points per game off the play type (8.2). Kawhi, meanwhile, is averaging 4.0 isolation points per game on the year, good for the sixth-most in basketball. Meanwhile, with George off the floor this season, Leonard is posting a 33% usage rate, while averaging a gaudy 1.43 fantasy points per minute. Oh, and if that weren’t enough…
Feel free to look to Luke Kennard at $3,800 on DK, who should once again start at small forward for the Clippers. Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka could play closer to 30 minutes in George’s absence and sees a 2% bump in usage with him off the floor this season.
