Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have NBA basketball all day today on MLK day. There are multiple slates you can play for DFS but for this article, per usual, our focus will be on the main slate, which features four games, though there are a ton of superstar options to choose from.
Dallas Mavericks @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -5, total: 218
The Mavericks played on Sunday, which presents the possibility that Kristaps Porzingis will rest here on the second end of a back-to-back. If he does, we could actually look to $3,500 Boban Marjanovic, who might have to play 17-20 minutes, which is more than enough when you consider that he averages 1.34 fantasy points per minute to go along with a 45 percent rebounding rate over the last two seasons. Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell have already been ruled out for this game so if Porzingis sits, the Dallas frontcourt would consist of Boban, Willie Cauley-Stein and James Johnson. WCS and Johnson are priced up after their uptick in minutes and usage with so many Mavericks out over the past week but if Porzingis doesn’t play, you can’t argue that they are viable options, especially with Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith still out, too. However, if Porzingis does play, I have a ton of GPP interest. He is coming off a 33-minute game against the Bulls and KP has not been shy at all. Porzingis has attempted 16, 19 and 19 shots in his first three games while sporting a healthy 33.2 percent usage rate. The Raptors will give it up to spot-up shooters, coughing up the third-most such points per game this season (35.2), while Porzingis is averaging around nine spot-up points per game so far this season, the most in the NBA.
Of course, you can always play Luka Doncic, who is probably a bit underpriced at “just” $11,000 on DraftKings. He is coming off a massive triple-double, going for 36 points, 16 rebounds and 15 assists against the Bulls. The Raptors defense has taken a bit of a step back this season and while they rank above average in most of Doncic’s archetypes per our advanced DVP, we all know that Luka is matchup-proof, while the usage will climb if Porzingis sits out tonight.
As for the Raptors, I like going right back to Chris Boucher here. While he likely won’t start the game, there’s a great chance he opens the second half. Boucher played the entire fourth quarter against Charlotte on Friday night and continues to dominate, averaging 1.38 fantasy points per minute. Boucher is averaging 2.5 points per game off cuts this season, while the Mavericks have struggled quite a bit to protect the rim this season, allowing a 70.2 percent field goal percentage within four feet of the basket, good for the second-highest rate in the league. Boucher continues to play plenty of five for Toronto, which bodes well for him here, facing a Mavericks team that is allowing the second-most points (24.7) per game to opposing centers on the year, while also ranking 26th against rebounders. The Mavericks have also struggled to defend the pick and roll this season, coughing up the most points per game to the roll man (10.6), which bodes well for Boucher, who is averaging 4.9 points per game off the play type this year, the fifth-most in the league. Meanwhile, both Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry are under $8,000 on DraftKings, enticing price tags, especially when you consider that they are locks to play 35-plus minutes in any competitive game. Pascal Siakam isn’t necessarily a bad play at $8,400 but I prefer going down to Boucher at $7,100, while players in the $8,000 range are going to be tough to roster tonight due to the high-end options on this slate.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets
MIL -2.5, total: 238
James Harden made his Brooklyn debut over the weekend and was fantastic, recording a triple-double (32-12-14). Harden and Kevin Durant absolutely dominated the usage, as both players sported usage rates just over 36 percent, a trend that will continue if Kyrie Irving remains out. Harden also touched the ball 106 times on Saturday, well above his 88 per game average for the season. However, Irving is questionable for this game and if he plays, things become really tough to project. I can honestly tell you that I have zero idea what to expect in terms of usage, play designs, etc. from this Brooklyn team with all three superstars active. If Kyrie plays, Durant and Harden take a hit but if he remains out, the two will once again be elite options, especially Durant at $10,100 on DraftKings. If looking elsewhere from this team, we know the rotation is going to be very tight with the Nets missing so many players due to trade/injury, which means Jeff Green will continue to start and log 30-32 minutes. He’ll have a very low usage rate but he will provide you with stable minutes and salary relief.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is way underpriced at just $10,400. I really don’t get why he’s so cheap. Perhaps it is due to his 1-for-10 showing from the free-throw line last game, but Giannis is still sporting an awesome 34.7 percent usage rate over the course of the season. There is nothing wrong with this matchup and both teams play fairly fast but even if this was the worst matchup in the history of basketball, I’d still play Giannis because of how underpriced he is. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton is perfectly fine at $8,000, providing you with a very, very safe floor with occasional ceiling games. Then there is Brook Lopez, who has now recorded double-digit rebounds in two straight games, which is shocking when you consider that he’s had double-digit boards just nine times in over 160 regular-season games with the Bucks. The price has come up to $5,600 on DraftKings and I am still worried that Lopez returns to his 4-6 rebound range, which would be brutal unless he records six or seven blocks, which is in his range of outcomes but not likely here. Finally, Jrue Holiday should play huge minutes here, as Milwaukee will likely ask him to guard Harden and/or Irving. His usage rate is down about five or six percent in his first season with the Bucks, while his touches per game have dropped by around 20.
Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls
HOU -2, total: 227
The Rockets find themselves in a very nice spot here, facing a Bulls team that ranks third in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency so far this season. John Wall has once again been ruled out while Victor Oladipo will make his Houston debut. Oladipo is $7,500, which is actually a pretty steep price tag for a player who hasn’t been all that great this season, though his usage should climb in Houston, especially in this game with Wall out. For what it is worth, in 12.1 minutes without another high usage player on the floor with the Pacers this season (Malcolm Brogdon), Oladipo had a 31 percent usage rate. However, I would rather go to Eric Gordon at an intriguing $5,200 price tag. Over his last 14 games with Harden sidelined, Gordon is averaging 35.2 DK points per contest, but there is obviously immense upside for more, especially with Wall also out. He is also averaging right around 18 shot attempts per game in that stretch and with Harden off the floor last season, Gordon saw a 5.1 percent usage bump, putting him just over 27 percent in the split, while averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute.
The price tag has skyrocketed on Christian Wood, but why wouldn’t it? He’s been unreal this season, averaging 23.2 points and nearly 11 rebounds per game. Over the last week, Wood is sporting a 29.6 percent usage rate, 40 percent rebound rate and 1.39 fantasy points per minute while averaging an awesome 83 touches per game over the last two contests, the two games since Harden was traded. This is an awesome matchup for Wood to keep it going, facing a bad Bulls defense that is surrendering the fifth-most points per game to the roll man out of the pick and roll (8.9), as well as the second-most possessions per game to the play type (8.0). That bodes well for Wood, whose 7.0 points per game as the roll man lead the NBA while averaging 1.19 points per possession off the play type. The Rockets continue to stagger the minutes of Wood and DeMarcus Cousins, which is great for Wood’s usage and rebounding potential. We have also seen Jae’Sean Tate handle the ball more since Harden and Wall’s absence, while he’s played at least 25 minutes in each of his last three games. However, the return of Gordon and the debut of Oladipo definitely hurts him while the price is a bit too high now.
Once again, I don’t love the Bulls price tags tonight. Of course, this game is pretty appealing to stack, which means Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen are more than viable bring-back options. LaVine is coming off an odd game where he attempted just eight shots and recorded 10 assists. The price is high but there is no denying the upside is still there for LaVine, who is sporting a 29.9 percent usage rate. Markkanen is coming off his best game in a long time and he’s actually my favorite member of the Bulls in this game. Meanwhile, I have no interest in Patrick Williams or Otto Porter Jr. at their price tags, the same goes for Wendell Carter Jr.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -9, total: 226
I really haven’t had much analysis on the Lakers for a week or so now. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have remained in that mid-low $9,000 price range, mainly because the Lakers continue to blow teams out, limiting the two stars to 30-33 minutes rather than giving them the upside for 36-37 minutes. In a pace-up spot against the Warriors, both are very, very fine plays, but it will be hard to love them if Irving is out for Brooklyn because that will propel Harden and Durant well ahead of these two. You know the floor is going to be massive for both of these players, especially LeBron, but with the Lakers as nine-point home favorites, it becomes another situation where you’d expect 30-32 minutes, which might not be enough on this slate.
For Golden State, my top option is Draymond Green, who I believe is at a very enticing price tag at $5,200 on DraftKings. The matchup isn’t elite, but the Warriors will need him on the floor for his defense presence, while he offers a very strong floor due to the fact that he’s sporting a 17 percent rebounding rate and 26 percent assist rate over the last week, with the latter easily leading the team during that span. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry is always in play when under $10,000 on DraftKings and if the Warriors are going to keep this game close, Curry likely has a huge game, which also means we likely see plenty of assists from Draymond, as the two correlate, especially off of screens and dribble handoffs. Finally, I do believe James Wiseman is a very interesting tournament play tonight. His minutes are back up as of late, as the rookie has logged 26 and 27 minutes over his last two games. He has a 24 percent usage rate and is averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute and with Wiseman logging these minutes, he’s too cheap at $4,600 on DraftKings. Wiseman is also a player that likely still plays if the Lakers do blow this game open.
