Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have 10 NBA games on tap for Friday to round out the work week and a ton of injury news and COVID-19 situations to monitor, as Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and De'Aaron Fox are all in danger of missing their respective games. On top of that, there’s a non-zero chance the Nets/Grizzlies game is postponed due to close contact with the Sixers Thursday. It’ll be important to stay on top of the news, but this look at the day’s key DFS information is written with the hypotheticals in consideration.
Vegas odds derived from DraftKings SportsBook. All totals from the time of writing are posted. With that said, some games will not have totals posted if there is outstanding injury news.
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Phoenix Suns (-7) @ Detroit Pistons (217.5 total)
Pace: PHO (30th), DET (17th)
Defensive efficiency: PHO (T9th), DET (27th)
This game will likely garner little interest on a full slate, and I can’t say that I disagree. The Suns have been one of the better defensive teams in the league while also running at the slowest pace. On top of that, their usage distribution on offense makes it hard to trust any particular asset. If one Suns player sticks out, it’ll continue to be Chris Paul. At $7,100, it’s hard to find another player that provides a 43.1% assist rate, 22% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute, making him a stable cash-game play.
For as little interest as I have in the Suns, I may have less in the Pistons. The Suns are not a team to proactively attack, especially with one of the worst teams in the NBA. With that said, the absence of Killian Hayes should continue to open up opportunities for Derrick Rose, who holds a 30.7% usage rate with him out. For under $6,000, you could do worse.
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics (-5.5)
Pace: WAS (2nd), BOS (T22nd)
Defensive efficiency: WAS (30th), BOS (T19th)
Bradley Beal is fresh off of a career-high 60 points against the Sixers and may have another golden opportunity Friday, as Russell Westbrook is listed as questionable due to a dislocated finger. Beal owns a 38.4% usage rate with Westbrook off the court (1.55 FPPM), making him one of the best plays on the slate if that becomes the case. If Westbrook plays, we can still count on Beal in tournaments with his 36%-plus usage rate. Westbrook, in that case, would also be an elite tournament play at his price.
Raul Neto is only $3,900, which will likely cause him to be popular should Westbrook sit out. With both him and Ish Smith ($4,100) in the same range, a case can be made for either, but Neto has proven he’s the go-to option this season sans Westbrook. They can both be disregarded if Westbrook is in.
The Celtics are also dealing with some question marks, as Tristan Thompson (health and safety protocols), Jeff Teague (ankle) and Robert Williams (health and safety protocols) are all questionable. If Thompson and Williams end up sitting, that would free up just about all of the center minutes for Daniel Theis, who, at $4,300, would become one of the best value plays on the slate with 32-plus minutes almost guaranteed.
If Teague misses, Payton Pritchard will see a usage bump off the bench, but it’s not necessarily significant enough to make him a staple in cash and single-entry contests.
Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are also extremely enticing in this matchup. At their prices, I prefer Tatum, as he’s come on over the last week with a 29.3% usage rate and 1.39 FPPM over that span. He’s also seen a spike in peripherals, generating a 22.2% assist rate.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks (-3.5, 208.5 total)
Pace: OKC (16th), NYK (27th)
Defensive efficiency: OKC (17th), NYK (7th)
I rarely have interest in the Thunder and even against the Knicks (who, by the way, rank seventh in defensive efficiency), my train of thought is the same. The only Thunder player worth the time on a 10-game slate is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as he’s simply too cheap for $7,800. His 28.2% usage rate, 35.7% assist rate and 1.17 FPPM clip are metrics of a player $2,000 more than him. The discount is something to take advantage of.
I have little DFS interest in the Knicks in this game as well outside of Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. Randle’s price continues to climb, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a safer bet for 36-plus minutes right now. On top of that, he’s posted at least 59 DK points in consecutive games (four times overall this season) and is only 2.6 assists shy of averaging a triple double. The price is warranted. Barrett is a nice discount off of Randle if you want Knicks exposure. Like Randle, it’s hard to find another player at this price range that’s minutes are as safe as Barrett’s. If he shoots efficiently, he could be in for some monster performances.
Mitchell Robinson is also worth a lot of consideration, especially if Nerlens Noel sits. There’s nobody on the Thunder that will be able to defend him in the post and now that his minutes are finally normalizing, $5,700 is simply too cheap.
Charlotte Hornets @ New Orleans Pelicans (-6, 218 total)
Pace: CHA (10th), NOP (25th)
Defensive efficiency: CHA (13th), NOP (5th)
There seems to be a theme so far, as there is already a heap of teams that don’t generate a ton of interest so far on this slate. The Hornets are no different, as the Pelicans are a bottom-six team in pace, and a top-five team in defensive efficiency. On top of that, their prices are hard to swallow, as Gordon Hayward at $8,400 is tough to consider, while $6,500 for LaMelo Ball is a steep price to play for a player coming off of the bench. If there’s a single Hornet to consider, it’s Ball, but it’s not pretty.
The Pelicans side of the ball should be dominated, per usual, by Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. Of the two, Ingram is my preferred option, as he’s posted just under 1.3 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate north of 30%. Williamson isn’t far behind at 27.6%, but his volatility in terms of peripheral production (12.9% rebounding rate, 6.9% assist rate), profile him as a better tournament play than cash play.
JJ Redick is questionable after missing practice Thursday, which could line Josh Hart up for a nice bump in playing time. At $4,800, getting a guard with a 17.5% rebounding rate this season that’s averaged close to a fantasy point per minute is a value play to take advantage of.
Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets (-6, 226 total)
Pace: ORL (15th), HOU (18th)
Defensive efficiency: ORL (4th), HOU (T19th)
The Magic were dealt a massive blow Wednesday, as Markelle Fultz tore his ACL and is set to miss the season. With both him and Michael Carter-Williams sidelined now, Cole Anthony should get all the run he can handle in the backcourt. His price is up to $5,000, but for a player averaging just under 10 shot attempts in only 21.3 minutes per game, you have to like his prospects in a 30-32-minute role. He’s one of the top value plays on the board.
This should also give an incremental usage bump to Nikola Vucevic, especially if Evan Fournier sits out again. While his price went up, this offense continues to flow through the big man, making him an elite tournament play against a rather exploitable Rockets defense. Outside of those two, however, it’s hard to trust the likes of Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier (if active) and Terrence Ross at their current prices.
For the Rockets, James Harden should garner ownership simply because it’s only him and Giannis Antetokounmpo priced over $10,000 on DraftKings today. So, by default, he’s one of the best raw plays on the slate (per usual). While I won’t argue with those that want to play him, I think that a balanced approach or building around Antetokounmpo will be more optimal Friday. John Wall is a nice discount off of Harden and while the ceiling isn’t necessarily comparable, he should be able to run circles around Anthony defensively and should be a shoo-in for 5x his current tag of $8,000.
If Christian Wood is out, DeMarcus Cousins is a smash play at center again. With Wood out last game, Cousins posted a 26% usage rate and 1.75 FPPM while only shooting 2-9 from the field. With so much room for improvement from the field in only 23.5 minutes, it’s scary how high his ceiling is for only $5,100.
Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Pace: BKN (5th), MEM (T12th)
Defensive efficiency: BKN (6th), MEM (15th)
This is the game to monitor throughout the day Friday, as there was a positive COVID-19 test among the Sixers last night (mid-game), so by close-contact standards, there’s a significant chance that this game could be postponed with the Nets playing the Sixers last night. I will write this game up in case it plays, but be prepared for a postponement.
If this game plays, it’s likely to be without Kyrie Irving, who did not travel with the team due to personal reasons. This would, once again, set up Caris LeVert for a massive usage rate, as he saw that number sit at 37.1% while posting 1.57 FPPM on Thursday against the Sixers. Joe Harris is still too cheap with this in mind as well, as he came off the bench to flirt with 20 shot attempts and posted a 26.1% usage rate. This would also give a bump to Chris Chiozza and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot.
Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan are also both in play, with Jordan being an elite per-minute option at $4,100 in tournaments.
The Grizzlies are a team that I usually pass by given their prices and lack of desirable ceilings on a 10-game slate. Jonas Valanciunas is the one Memphis player that I would have interest in, as $7,200 is simply too cheap, especially against an exploitable frontcourt like the Nets.
Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks (-6, 230.5 total)
Pace: UTA (T22nd), MIL (4th)
Defensive efficiency: UTA (18th), MIL (11th)
Much like the Grizzlies, the Jazz are a team I am not entirely interested in on a full slate given the fact that the usage is distributed among four or five guys and that doesn’t cater well to DFS. Rudy Gobert remains cheap and should be on the court a ton to provide rim protection against Giannis, but he’s a tournament play at best considering the other options at the center position. There can also be a case for Bojan Bogdanovic, as he’s averaged 24.7 points over his last three games against the Bucks and remains too cheap on both sites for his ceiling, especially where two power forwards are required on FanDuel.
The Bucks, like the Jazz, aren’t a team garnering a ton of my interest on a full slate. The only player who I’ll go out of my way to target here is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s the second-highest-priced player on the slate and frankly, should be the highest. He’s posted a 37% usage rate over the last week and over his last two games in particular, is averaging almost two fantasy points per minute. On top of that, he’s absolutely destroyed the Jazz over the last two seasons. In his last five games against them, he’s averaged 38 points, 12.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.8 stocks (steals + blocks) per game. For $10,900, that’s exactly what you want and more.
Aside from Giannis, Brook Lopez is another Buck worthy of consideration. At $4,600, all it’ll take is an above-average rebounding game and a handful of blocks and he could legitimately flirt with 10x his price assuming he plays 30-plus minutes in this matchup. He’s a great tournament play at this price.
The rest of the Bucks are complimentary pieces at best in this game and on a 10-game slate, don’t have high enough ceilings with a fully healthy team to warrant consideration.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors (+5)
Pace: LAC (29th), GSW (1st)
Defensive efficiency: LAC (21st), GSW (22nd)
The news to monitor in this game is the status of Stephen Curry, as he is currently listed as questionable. Transparently, if Curry is ruled out, this game will be hard to target, as the Warriors wouldn’t stand a chance (not that they do, anyway). Damion Lee would likely see a massive boost on top of picking up blowout run, as would Brad Wanamaker. Of the two, I trust Lee more as a value play. If Curry is in, however, those two are unplayable. In that case, Curry would be a fine GPP play, but at his price there are stronger plays given his matchup.
Kelly Oubre is the Warriors player I’ll continue to roster until his price rises, as he’s more than $1,000 cheaper than we saw last season. He’s starting to round into form, making him too cheap.
For the Clippers, there’s an outside shot that Kawhi Leonard sits tonight, as he just played in back-to-back games earlier in the week, something we never saw last season. Additionally, the 5-point spread seems to imply that he may sit.
In that case, Paul George would be an elite play at $9,100, but it can be argued that there are still better plays elsewhere given this game environment. This would also open up more production opportunities for Nic Batum, Serge Ibaka and Lou Williams. Of the three, Batum would be my favorite with price factored in.
If Leonard is in, his $9,300 price tag is enticing, but not in anything more than a large-field tournament given the fact that he could realistically only see 30 minutes (or less) in a blowout.
Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5)
Pace: CHI (3rd), LAL (T19th)
Defensive efficiency: CHI (25th), LAL (3rd)
On the second leg of a back-to-back, it’s fair to question whether both LeBron James and Anthony Davis will play. Luckily, this is a hypothetical that we’ve been preparing for all season. If one sits, play the other, as well as Kyle Kuzma, who would be the biggest beneficiary in both scenarios out of the ancillary players. Dennis Schroder and Talen Horton-Tucker would also see a bump if James sits, while Montrezl Harrell would see a bump if Davis sits.
If both play, it’s frankly safe to avoid the Lakers as a whole.
The Bulls are another easy fade on this slate. Their prices are hard to stomach in a matchup with one of the best defensive units in the NBA and there’s a very real chance that this game will be over by the third quarter. If you’re pressing to play a Bulls player, the best bet is still Zach LaVine. At $8,600, you’re going to want a ceiling game, but this is certainly a possibility with his 29.8% usage rate and 22.6% assist rate.
Toronto Raptors (-5) @ Sacramento Kings
Pace: TOR (8th), SAC (14th)
Defensive efficiency: TOR (14th), SAC (24th)
The Kings have news to monitor as well, as both De'Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes are listed as questionable. This would be a massive bump to Tyrese Haliburton, who saw his price jump to $5,400 after a 17-point, seven-rebound, six-assist, three-steal game in 34 minutes when Fox went down last game. Even at $5,400, it would be hard to get off Haliburton with a full workload.
The absence of Holmes would mean more Marvin Bagley and Hassan Whiteside, with Bagley far and away being the preferred option. He finally broke out in 29 minutes last game, posting 16 points and 12 boards. He’s still too cheap at $5,900 with this in mind. Whiteside is also cheap, as his $3,200 is $200 more than the stone minimum on DraftKings. He carries a ton of risk in terms of playing time, but the point-per-minute upside is there, and you can’t do much worse at his price.
The Raptors backcourt is always worth consideration at their current tags ($8,100 for VanVleet, $7,900 for Lowry), but I always default to the cheaper option. This is a good matchup for both, as the Kings rank 24th in overall Defensive efficiency. We just have to hope the game stays close.
Outside of those two, there isn’t much to get excited about for the Raptors, as I won’t target Pascal Siakam until he rounds into consistent form (although I can’t argue with his $7,700 tag).
