The End of the Patriots Dynasty

The New England Patriots spent the 2023 offseason seemingly wiping their hands clean of the nightmare that was 2022. For how bad the season may have felt, an 8-9 record with a No. 15 total DVOA and a Week 18 playoff elimination seemed easy to come back from. 

The Patriots chalked their offensive woes up to Matt Patricia but still tried to make improvements. They brought in a Belichick disciple in Bill O’Brien, loaded up on skill position depth pieces, and even took a couple of fliers on receivers in the draft before calling it a day. New England cleaned house on special teams, letting kicker Nick Folk and punter Jake Bailey walk in favor of rookie replacements. Their vaunted defense lost Patriot mainstay Devin McCourty to retirement but gained some impressive young talent. 

In the 2023 Almanac, New England ranked middle of the pack in our DVOA projections with an average offense, a good defense, and a turnaround special teams unit. We had major concerns about the Patriots’ skill position players. There was a definite cap on their ceiling. At the end of the day, though, we thought New England was a not-so-great team propped up by one of the best coaches of all time Bill Belichick. The whole chapter concluded with us saying that a Belichick-coached team might be too good, making it hard to initiate the true rebuild this team needed.

We don’t need to worry about that anymore. 

The Patriots have defied all expectations. This isn’t an average team underperforming. The New England Patriots are a flat-out bad football team. Their -22.5% total DVOA is their worst start through six weeks since 1995. It’s not the worst in franchise history – those early nineties teams were rough – but this is clearly the Patriots’ worst start under Belichick. 

New England came into the season with the league’s hardest schedule, and the front end of that stretch was always going to be a gauntlet. It just wasn’t supposed to get this bad. After three weeks of competitive play, the wheels completely fell off. New England suffered the biggest loss of Belichick’s career in a 38-3 loss to the Cowboys. The Patriots followed it up the biggest home loss of Belichick’s career in a 34-0 shutout against the Saints (the team’s first shutout since 2016). The Patriots weren’t good enough to beat the Dolphins or Cowboys, sure, but they weren’t even good enough to beat the Saints and Raiders. 

There was an assumption that Mac Jones would return to his rookie-year form now that he was playing under a real offensive coordinator in a familiar offense. Matt Patricia was supposed to be the thing holding Jones back during his 26 DYAR, -10.1% DVOA passing performance last year. Through six games, Jones has posted a -144 DYAR and -21.7% DVOA this season. He is also currently leading the league with 17 interception-worthy throws per FTN Data charting, three ahead of any other quarterback. He’s thrown a league-leading three pick-sixes and chipped in a fumble returned for a touchdown to boot. 

It’s a real Jekyll-and-Hyde situation with Jones, too. There are times when he makes the most of what he’s been dealt. Jones has one of the highest rates of throws into tight windows of any starter with at least 70 dropbacks; he also has the highest completion percentage in the league on tight-window throws, according to data by PFF. When the play is bad, though, it’s awful. Jones will skip reads, throw off his back foot unnecessarily, and make mind-numbing decisions. He’s good at avoiding pressure in the pocket, but that goodwill goes away when he airmails a ball with bad footwork in between a corner’s numbers. 

Speaking of pressure, Belichick’s decision to just wing it on the offensive line has completely backfired.  According to Sports Info Solutions, four of the Patriots’ eight offensive linemen with at least 100 snaps have blown block rates above 4.0%. Antonio Mafi (11 blown blocks) just misses the cut at 3.9%. The offensive line has been disastrous for stretches. New England allows the fifth-shortest time in pocket (2.38 s) on dropbacks and ranks 25th in adjusted line yards (3.83).

The skill position group had a low bar to clear, but most have somehow missed the mark. Rhamondre Stevenson has the seventh-lowest rushing DYAR and eighth-lowest rushing DVOA among all backs with at least 50 rushes. Ezekiel Elliott’s -47.3% receiving DVOA and -28 DYAR are worst and second-worst among all running backs with at least 15 targets. At receiver, DeVante Parker’s average separation of 1.9 yards is worst in the league. Kendrick Bourne has the second-lowest DYAR (-43) and fifth-lowest DVOA (-54.1%) when targeted on deep passes (min. 10 targets). JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging just 3.4 yards per target, the fewest among all receivers with at least 25 targets. Tight-end duo Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki have been solid, if unremarkable.

The Patriots’ woes at skill positions look even worse when you look at the players who got away. Jakobi Meyers, the Patriots’ only successful home-grown receiver since Julian Edelman, is now going toe-to-toe with Davante Adams in Las Vegas. After finishing as the worst receiver in the league by DVOA in 2022, Nelson Agholor looks like an extremely competent rotational receiver for Baltimore. Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith is out-performing both Henry and Gesicki by receiving DYAR.

The special teams is somehow worse than it was last year. New England boasts the league’s worst field goal unit and the fifth-worst punt unit, by DVOA measurements. Kicker Chad Ryland currently has a league-low 55.6% field goal percentage on just nine attempts. Bryce Baringer has a league-high 33 punt attempts with a seventh-lowest 44.1 yards per punt. 

The saving grace of this team, the defense, is only slightly under-performing DVOA projections thus far. That’s a small miracle, given the fact that New England’s played without most of its cornerback room for most of the season. Jack Jones and Marcus Jones have both spent stints on injured reserve, while rookie Christian Gonzalez is done for the year with a shoulder injury. He joins outside linebacker Matthew Judon on season-ending IR; Judon is out with a torn pec. 

Most importantly, this isn’t just a team without talent. This, at points, feels like a poorly coached team. New England has 39 penalties against, top-10 in the league through six games. Execution is way off. Blockers can’t pass off stunts. Receivers run into each other on crossing routes. It’s a mess. Extremely undisciplined, and very un-Belichick.

Belichick actually exacerbates some of these stresses with some head-scratching decisions. Rookie receiver Demario Douglas, the only speed on New England’s offense with Tyquan Thornton sidelined, has been in the doghouse because of a Week 4 punchout fumble. Belichick tried to get Malik Cunningham in the mix against the Raiders; Cunningham played three snaps – a handoff, a split-out motion on wildcat, and a convoluted play-action pass that ended in a sack. Belichick also elected to punt from the Saints’ 40-yard-line on fourth-and-3. When asked if he thought about going for it, Belichick responded, “Until we’re better on third and fourth down, I don’t think so.” New England is 2-for-10 on fourth-down attempts this season, the lowest rate of conversion in the league. It’s bad, sure, but what do you have to lose down 24-0? 

*exhale*

Okay, so here’s the bad news: the New England Patriots have an anemic offense unable to compete with even the middle class of the league. The first-round quarterback they drafted isn’t the guy. He doesn’t have a functional offensive line, nor does he have a true WR1. Moreover, the Patriots’ 71-year-old Hall of Fame coach is about to set the record for most career losses, is losing grip of the discipline and order that fueled a two-decade dynasty, and he still might be too good to play New England out of a full-on tank. Their defense is too battered to really make a difference this season. 

Wait, wait! It’s not all doom here. There is light on the horizon! Of any team not named Chicago, New England is uniquely positioned to reset and fast-track a rebuild back to relevancy. New England owns all their own draft picks and enters the offseason with a second-highest $93.8 million in cap space. This feels like a real Tobias Funke “…but it might work for us!” moment, especially considering the fast reset was the name of the game in 2021. Remember that one? The one that got us into this mess? 

However, there is a way to do the rebuild the right way. It starts with selling. Selling HARD. 

New England’s best offensive skill players – Kendrick Bourne, Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Henry, and Mike Gesicki – are all in the final years of their deals. Henry would likely draw the most attention from a playoff hopeful, but Bourne should be on the table as well. New England has two rookie receivers (Douglas, Kayshon Boutte) and a second-year receiver with little experience in Thornton. This is a time to see what you have to make the most informed decisions this offseason. Play Cunningham while we’re at it. Take full inventory before the offseason. 

While we’re talking trades, that 2020 draft class becomes very interesting as they all hit free agency. Mike Onwenu is the best lineman by blown block rate on New England and can play both guard and tackle. Kyle Dugger is a hyper-versatile safety/linebacker tweener having a down season thus far. Josh Uche is leading the team in both sacks and pressures. If they can generate some decent draft capital, there’s a tough conversation to be had. If not, Onwenu and Dugger should probably be offseason priorities to re-sign. 

Speaking of the offseason, the Patriots’ offseason probably starts with a difficult but necessary goodbye. New England and Belichick parting ways is in the best interest of both parties. The Patriots need the bandage ripped off, and Belichick is tarnishing his legacy by coaching a middling squad until he breaks Shula’s record. Bill can still coach, it’s just easier for everyone if he does so on a team with an established roster. 

That means a new head coach. Last year, when Jerod Mayo returned to New England despite some head coaching opportunities, it seemed like Robert Kraft had Mayo pinned as the heir apparent to the head coaching job. It’s an interesting direction. Mayo is a talented and promising coaching prospect, a former Patriot player, and knows this defense extremely well. Is it too close to home? Perhaps. New England would (hopefully) allow Mayo to pick his own offensive coordinator if given the head coaching role. Belichick retreads running inefficient offenses should be a thing of the past in this era.

Now that the hard part’s out of the way, there are two possible paths. It’s too early to tell where New England will fall in the draft pecking order. If they end up in that top-three-to-five mix, where they have a legitimate shot at a quarterback, the Patriots have to seize it. Get in a position to draft Drake Maye, then worry about the rest later. Before you get to draft day, land Maye a true No. 1 receiver in Mike Evans. He’s never finished with less than 1,000 yards per season; at 31, Evans is averaging his highest yards per target since 2019. Tee Higgins could be a reluctant consolation prize in this scenario. After that, re-sign Trent Brown (the free agent tackle class is sparse) and spend premier draft capital on this deep tackle class. Give the new kid the best possible chance to succeed going forward. 

If Belichick and the defense turn a few too many games New England’s way, Plan B is a little more dire. In this scenario, Mac Jones is still ostensibly your QB1, now on his fourth offensive coordinator in four years. If you use this situation as a reason to punt and slow the rebuild down, there are a lot of one-year contract talents to help you do that. A flier on Michael Thomas, a one-year for Dalton Schultz, just something to build a foundation. As for the draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. is almost certainly out of the question, but the top of this draft is lousy with receiving talent. Matt Groh had a good eye for receiving talent in the backend of the 2023 draft, trust him to hit on a first-rounder. A quarterback has to enter the mix somewhere, though. If Michael Penix falls to Day 2, awesome. If Box Nix falls even further, snag a tackle the round before on your way to get him. Jayden Daniels, Jordan Travis, whoever, just walk away from the top-100 with someone at quarterback. 

This is uncharted territory for New England. Patriots fans haven’t been this tuned out this early in decades. Not only is New England likely drafting a new quarterback, this is the first time in the 21st century the Patriots have even thought about hiring a new coach. So much dread and misery, but one can’t help but at least be a bit excited. 

Empires fall, dynasties end. If this is the end of the Belichick era in New England, just start the new era on as strong a note as possible. These last three years should come with a ton of lessons about how not to develop a quarterback. Hopefully, they heed those lessons if they plan on taking the next step back to playoff contention.