Why Does Something Feel Off in Kansas City?

The world champion Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1. If the season ended today, they would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

So why does it feel like they are … kinda meh this year?

Most of the high-level data points don’t support that feeling. As we said above, they are sitting pretty in the AFC West (and the AFC). They rank No. 5 in total team DVOA. They rank in the top 10 for all three phases of the game.

But still, something feels off from the usual Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs. So what’s going on? And is there any actual data to support that feeling?

Chiefs through Six Games in the Patrick Mahomes Era

Let’s start somewhere simple. How are the Chiefs through six weeks compared to the other five seasons in the Mahomes era?

Their overall DVOA rank of fifth at 27.9% puts them as the second-best team (out of six) in this sample. But this is the first time the offense has not ranked first or second in offensive DVOA through six weeks.

On the defensive side of the ball, they have a top 10 unit through six games for the first time with Mahomes. In fact, only one other year (2020) did the defense even rank in the top half of the league through six games.

So are the odd feelings really as simple as “the offense is slightly worse, the defense is a lot better, and we aren’t used to that with Mahomes so it feels wrong?”

Maybe. But that would be too short of an article, so let’s keep digging to see what we find. 

KC’s 2023 Games (so far)

• L, 20-21 vs. DET (12.8% DVOA). Turns out the hype about the Lions was legit. They are also at 5-1 right now. The Chiefs also played without Travis Kelce in this game.
• W, 17-9 vs. JAX (34.5% DVOA). The first sign of things to come? Only 17 points for the offense, but Mahomes still threw for over 300 and two touchdowns while the defense kept Trevor Lawrence scoreless and the Jags under 10 points.
• W, 41-10 vs. CHI (62.4% DVOA). The current outlier of the Chiefs’ season, a dominating stomp of a bad team.
• W, 23-20 vs. NYJ (-0.2% DVOA). Mahomes was out-dueled by Zach Wilson. Zach Wilson! Kansas City had a 17-0 lead after the first quarter but lost 6-20 the rest of the way. They still hung on for the win, though.
• W, 27-20 vs. MIN (25.6% DVOA). There was nothing strange about this game, although it feels fair to wonder if the Vikings could have closed the seven-point gap on their final drive if Justin Jefferson was healthy.
• W, 19-8 vs. DEN (35% DVOA). The Broncos have the second-worst defense in NFL history (okay – since 1981, per DVOA) through six games and the Chiefs didn’t even put up 20 against them. A concern? Or perhaps we can write this off as “division foes always put up a fight.”

So there you have it. The Chiefs have scored 20 or fewer points in three of six games. Over the last 11 quarters of football, they have been close in score (52-48) against the combination of the Jets, Vikings, and Broncos. They have only topped 30 points once in six attempts. How does that compare to any other six-game stretch in Mahomes’ career?

Their 24.5 average PPG so far this year is the sixth-worst six-game stretch in Mahomes’ career. The five worse stretches? Those all came during the same other bad six-game stretch for the Chiefs’ offense back in 2021. That was also the only one other six-game stretch in which the Chiefs topped 30 points only once in the Mahomes era.

That came in the middle of the 2021 season, when they scored 3, 20, 13, 41, 19, and 22 in a span and netted an SI article that said “Patrick Mahomes continues to be a shell of himself – Over the past month, Patrick Mahomes has played like an unrecognizable quarterback. Gone are the explosive plays that made him a league MVP.” 

But, of course, that bad streak didn’t last. After that six-game stretch in 2021, the Chiefs hung 38, 34, 36, 31, 28, and 44 in their next six and made it to the AFC Championship Game.

On the flip side, you could argue that the 2021 team had Tyreek Hill. Which brings us to the next topic.

The 2023 WR Struggles in KC

The 2023 struggles at wide receivers in KC are well-documented. The team’s leading receiver is obviously Travis Kelce (36 catches, 346 yards, 3 TDs in five games), but after that, it gets rough fast.

• Rashee Rice: 28-21-245-2
• Justin Watson: 17-10-219-0
• Noah Gray: 17-12-147-1
• Skyy Moore: 21-11-145-1
• Isiah Pacheco: 19-17-135-0

For some context, Tyreek Hill had 215 yards in Week 1 alone.

The 2022 Chiefs played without Hill and didn’t appear to miss him at all. Heck, they won the Super Bowl and Mahomes was MVP again. But Hill’s absence, despite being miraculously masked in 2022, has been noticeable this year. It’s not just a lack of big plays, but it’s also showing up in the red zone. The Chiefs are scoring 4.67 points per red zone trip so far this year, 17th best in the NFL and their lowest mark since at least 2020 (they have been over 5 points per red zone trip every other year).

The team is bringing Mecole Hardman back, but nobody expects that to be a needle-mover.

Hardman, in theory, should bring some more explosive plays to KC. Mahomes’ average depth of target is 6.46 so far this year, down from 7.24 last year. But Hardman isn’t a “deep threat” despite his speed (his aDOT was just 8.09 last year with the Chiefs). The 6.46 mark is the 29th lowest in the NFL among 30 qualifying quarterbacks. 

Defenses are playing the Chiefs offense in new ways this year, too. Last year. 50% of Mahomes’ pass attempts came against man coverage. This year, that number is down to 35% according to FTN Data charting. 

The lack of talent at wide receiver has Mahomes on track for the worst statistical season of his career. Hardman is unlikely to cause that to change.

So Are the Chiefs bad? Good? What’s Going On?

The Chiefs are not bad. As noted in the opening, they are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC, have a top-five DVOA, and are 5-1.

But the offense is in the second-worst month-and-a-half streak of the Mahomes era. That’s why it feels different so far in 2023. That, and the team is sporting their best defense in a hot minute.

And everyone expects them to turn it around on offense – Mahomes is still the betting favorite to win MVP this year, tied with Tua Tagovailoa. This is clearly a reflection of what people expect to happen for the rest of the season versus what has already happened.

And we’ve seen Mahomes go through a cold spell before. As we already pointed out, that snap ended with the Chiefs ripping off over 35 points per game over their next six.

This may be the only time a DVOA-article author has ever said something like this, but: I think “QB Winz” has some merit – maybe, probably. This floated around Twitter earlier this week: Mahomes has the third-best successful game-winning drive percentage in NFL history, behind Tom Brady (makes sense) and Vince Young (this is why people make fun of “QB Winz”). Other names near the top of the list are Andrew Luck, John Elway, and Peyton Manning. (Of course there are also Nick Foles and Jimmy Garoppolo near the top, too, but I don’t want to turn this into a QB Winz piece.)

The point: History suggests that often, the best quarterbacks to ever do it still find ways to win even when they are in a bit of a slump. That’s exactly what’s happening with Mahomes and the Chiefs here. And the “slump” still has the team with the sixth-rated offense, per DVOA. Pretty, pretty good. 

The Chiefs feel different so far this year because they have been different. More defense, less reliant on the offense, and missing Tyreek Hill for the first time since he left.

But the offense is still clicking, the team is still winning, and we’ve seen Mahomes break through a streak like this once before in epic fashion. The Chiefs will be fine.