Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Every team was in action this past weekend with the NFL preseason under full swing. While preseason information isn’t the most reliable for many players, we can glean some important data points that can inform fantasy football drafting. At the very least, “meaningful” NFL snaps can cause big movement in ADP as fantasy managers react (or overreact) to seeing NFL players do NFL things for the first time since the Super Bowl.
This week’s ADP breakdown features four of the biggest movers (positively or negatively) on the Underdog platform over the last week. Whether it is from camp reports or preseason action, figuring out the players that are moving up or down in fantasy drafts can open up advantages in drafting, especially when players become available later in big season tournaments, which opens up value.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
The biggest faller at the quarterback position (outside of Kyler Murray, who is getting less and less likely to play Week 1 of the regular season) is Houston Texans’ rookie C.J. Stroud. Stroud dropped 3.7 spots in ADP after the Texans’ first preseason game, falling to QB27, just behind Washington’s Sam Howell.
The rookie quarterback struggled in his first preseason action, completing just 2 of 4 passes for 13 yards and an interception against the New England Patriots. It certainly didn’t help that both Davis Mills (9/12 for 99 yards and a touchdown) and Case Keenum (9/14 for 79 yards and a touchdown) seemed to move the ball more effectively during their stints in the game. It didn’t help that one of the biggest criticisms of Stroud in college (his ability to pass while under pressure) was seemingly on full display in his first NFL game action.
The Texans have yet to formally announce their starting quarterback in 2023, but many expect Stroud to emerge after he was made the second overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. Many rookies struggle in their first NFL action and facing off against the Patriots’ starting defense certainly isn’t the best bar to assess Stroud by. He will continue to see plenty of repetitions throughout camp so we can more accurately assess him as we get closer to the season. He still makes for a strong QB2 or QB3 (depending on your format or build) until we get concrete evidence that he won’t be the starter this season.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Free Agent
The biggest riser at the running back position is Kareem Hunt, a player who doesn’t have a team (as of this article) in 2023 but has been busy on the workout circuit as we get closer to the regular season. Hunt took visits to the Saints and Colts last week with speculation that both teams were prepared to sign him. Unfortunately, neither team ultimately did, which allowed Hunt to take a visit with the Vikings as well.
Hunt seems to be the veteran running back most likely to sign at this point, which caused his ADP to jump two rounds (24.2 spots) in the last week. Hunt is now being drafted at pick 186 and is the RB59 off the board. Hunt can pay off his ADP with a soft landing spot (Minnesota and Indianapolis both have inexperienced running back depth), but it remains to be seen where he will ultimately land.
It also doesn’t help that Hunt is coming off arguably the worst healthy season of his professional career. The veteran running back played in all 17 games behind Cleveland’s offensive line last season but averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and scored just three rushing touchdowns. Hunt maintained a consistent presence in Cleveland’s passing attack (35 receptions on 44 targets for 210 yards and a receiving touchdown). He also set a career-low in snap percentage (42%) with Nick Chubb taking on a steadier role in the offense.
Hunt can provide fantasy value in 2023, but drafters looking to get an edge by securing a veteran RB4 or RB5 on their roster may want to pump the breaks before assuming that he will be a major player in 2023.
Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos
Marvin Mims has started to climb the wide receiver ADP ranks now that we know that Tim Patrick is gone for the season and KJ Hamler was waived due to a heart issue. Mims has seen his ADP rise 10.5 spots over the last week, putting him as the WR65 in Underdog’s ADP. Arguably, he hasn’t risen high enough yet.
With Patrick and Hamler out of the picture, Mims becomes assured of a big role to start the season in his rookie year with the Broncos. The Oklahoma product has the feel of somebody who has been consistently good for so long that fantasy gamers moved on to other players with more recent production. In 37 games with the Sooners, Mims caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns. He averaged over 20.0 yards per reception in his final two seasons and was excellent at making contested catches down the field, a skill that Russell Wilson has leaned on throughout his career with wide receivers.
At the very least, Mims should be a lock as the slot receiver in three-WR sets. Should anything happen to Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy, he would function as an outside receiver in a passing attack we expect to improve in 2023.
Mike Gesicki, TE, New England Patriots
There was plenty of hype surrounding Mike Gesicki early in the offseason after the Patriots signed him during free agency. There was hope Gesicki would push Hunter Henry for snaps on offense while also securing a role as a “big slot” weapon that new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien could use on offense. Unfortunately, early camp reports emerged that Gesicki was struggling to earn reps over Henry, which caused his ADP to climb 13.5 spots over the past week. Gesicki is now priced as the TE28 on Underdog.
However, a curious thing happened over the past weekend. The Patriots had a preseason game, and Gesicki didn’t play. Typically, NFL teams try to use early preseason games to assess how far along a new player is in their system. It speaks volumes that Gesicki wasn’t on the field for this game with the other starters because it signals the team may be comfortable with a role for him in the offense (unless there is an injury we don’t know about).
The Patriots offense figures to be better this year with an actual offensive coordinator calling plays and Gesicki could emerge as a key component of their passing attack, especially in the red zone. Regardless, his current price of TE28 won’t destroy any of your builds and provides enough touchdown upside to warrant the shot.
