Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory (Week 19)

August is a great month. One of my favorites actually. The MLB trade deadline just passed. How crazy was that? NFL training camp is officially underway. I traveled to Lambeau Field for the Green Bay Packers Annual Meeting of Shareholders last week. I took in a few training camp practices and got an up-close-and-personal view of my team.

That’s right. When I’m not managing my fantasy baseball squads, I’m fulfilling my duties as an NFL owner. And like a true NFL owner, I reached deep into my pockets and spent more money than I should at the team’s pro shop. Not quite Josh Harris money, but let’s say it’d really help if I win my baseball leagues now.

Side story: I’m actually in a league with Josh Harris. I’ll let you decide if it’s the real one or not.

But don’t worry; I haven’t let these outside distractions rattle my focus. With less than two months left in the fantasy baseball season, it’s time to look ahead to the playoffs. My head-to-head points league playoffs begin next Monday. Can you believe that? With that in mind, I’d like to explore how to assemble your playoff roster in fantasy baseball. That will be this week’s main section of Game Theory. I’ll also include other tips and tricks to utilize during your playoff matchups.

Note: The analysis below will heavily skew toward points leagues but can be applied in H2H category leagues as well.

If your postseason doesn’t start for another 3-4 weeks, that’s fine. It’s never too early to craft your roster in a way that will succeed in crunch time. I’d argue the moves you make prior to the playoffs are the most important moves you’ll make all season. I’ll discuss shortly.

Before we move on, I’d like to clean up some things. I’ve decided to remove the Game Theory in Review section moving forward. If you’ve followed me since Week 1, you know where I stand on particular takes. I’ve highlighted the good ones. I’ve showcased the bad ones. I like to think I’ve been transparent with my audience. The remaining articles in this series will solely focus on winning you a championship. That’s all that matters now.

So let’s talk about the playoffs. That’s right, Jim Mora. Playoffs.

Game Theory Week 19: Setting a Playoff Lineup

The Carousel

Remember the carousel spot on your roster? That was a sneak peek into how to set a playoff roster.

For those who missed it (or are too lazy to click the link and review yourself), the carousel spot is a designated player (typically a pitcher) who is easily replaceable and provides roster flexibility. In leagues where you have unlimited pitching starts, that spot is valuable because it allows you to cycle through streamers and maximize potential points.

If you have starting pitcher limits, it still gives you flexibility in weeks you’re starved for two-steps. Flexibility is invaluable come playoff time. Having the ability to pivot at the last minute and stream a start can net you 15-20 extra points.

A Moneyball lesson

I absolutely love Josh Lowe. He’s been one of the best values of the fantasy baseball season. But for a playoff roster? He’d make me nervous.

I’m not saying Lowe isn’t a player to roster on a playoff team. He probably helped get you there in the first place. However, I want consistent points in the playoffs. You can’t afford to start a player who might see the lineup only four times in a week. You can’t afford to start platoon players, no matter how efficient they are (Ryan O’Hearn comes to mind).

In the playoffs, you need players who are locked into a lineup spot. I mean, really locked in. Lane Thomas isn’t the sexiest name if you play in a shallow league. But that dude is never out of the lineup. Same goes for Josh Jung. I’m willing to sacrifice efficiency for raw points in a playoff matchup. Oftentimes, a matchup can be decided by 1-5 points, and that red X next to Josh Lowe’s name on Tuesday/Saturday could be the difference between a win and a loss.

Assess your playoff structure

Are your playoff matchups one week or two weeks? For argument’s sake, my league uses two-week playoff matchups (hence the early-August start). You’d approach a two-week matchup much differently than a one-week death match.

Nothing can be left on the table in a one-week playoff matchup. Maximize your starts. Load up your lineup with everyday players. If there are quirks to your league, take advantage of them. Maximize, maximize, maximize.

Here’s an example. Let’s say your pitching staff looks like this:

In this league, you’re allowed to start 12 pitchers per week. You go through the schedule ahead of your playoff matchup and see you’re already locked into 12 starts from these SPs. No moves necessary right? Not so fast.

Let’s say on Friday afternoon, Steven Matz puts together a 20-point outing. Great. Thanks for your services, Steven. You’re the carousel spot now.

You already have the maximum starts lined up. So how can you maximize your point total? Pick up an extra relief pitcher who’s listed as a SP and stick them in your lineup. It’s within the rules, you’re maintaining your 12-start limit and giving yourself a chance at extra points. Nick Pivetta is a great example if he’s following an opener. That won’t count as a “start,” but you’ll pick up an extra 10-15 points if he pitches well behind the opener. If you’re looking for a more traditional reliever, someone like Sean Manaea could fill that void. He’s listed as a SP on most sites but appears mostly in relief.

Tough Decisions

Hopefully it doesn’t come down to this. But making a tough drop call can give you new life – even if it hurts you in the long run.

Let’s use a similar pitching staff example as above, but with a few changes.

You’re trailing by 25 points going into the final day and your opponent has used all of their starts. You have one left. But your pitching staff is absolutely loaded. It feels gross, but this is a situation where dropping Eduardo Rodriguez for a streamer is absolutely necessary.

Sure, losing Rodriguez hurts. Another team will definitely scoop him up. If you advance, your team just got a bit weaker. But what good is Rodriguez to you if you’re eliminated? It’s the worst kind of move you might be faced with. Yet it’s absolutely necessary to survive. Pull the trigger.

Save your ammo

Many leagues limit the number of acquisitions you can make per week. If so, don’t make moves because you want to. Make moves because you have to. I often advocate saving your moves for late in the week in case there are schedule shenanigans.

The trade deadline week was a great example. I had my roster set on a Monday. I made a few luxury moves early in the week to chase some points. Then the trades started flowing. I lost a few pitchers. I lost a hitter or two due to injury. Suddenly, I wasn’t going to reach the starts limit, and I was down a shortstop with limited moves remaining.

That can’t happen in the playoffs. A great way to avoid having to scramble during the week is to utilize moves the previous week to set you up for the future. Let’s say you’re winning your Round 1 matchup comfortably with one day remaining. You have two acquisitions left for that week. But you don’t need them. The best thing to do is look ahead to next week and see where you’re thin. Spend those final two Round 1 acquisitions on players who will help you in Round 2.

In a perfect world, you won’t need any acquisitions in Round 2 if you plan ahead. They could all be luxury moves to maximize points (see above).

Create safety nets

This should be handled prior to your first playoff matchup. Take a good look at your roster and see where you’re most vulnerable. During the regular season, it makes sense to collect as many “good” players as possible. My regular-season bench typically includes players I believe can score the most points in a given week if their number is called.

However, the approach should change before you enter the playoffs. If you have a healthy Corey Seager at SS, I’d rather have a solid backup SS on my bench (like Geraldo Perdomo) than a guy like Steven Kwan on your bench to replace an outfielder.

In a vacuum, Kwan > Perdomo as a bench option (regardless of position). But in the playoffs, an injury to Seager could create a massive hole at SS. That position is extremely thin on the waiver wire, which is why I’d jump at the chance to scoop up Perdomo in case disaster strikes. If an outfielder of yours gets hurt, there are a plethora of streaming options at the position that can help you in a pinch. At shortstop? Not so much.

Forget about the rankings when making roster decisions in the playoffs. Optimize your starting lineup, and make sure your bench consists of players who can fill in where you’re weakest. It sounds simple, but many managers have bench players who are good on paper yet don’t actually improve their roster if a change needs to be made.

That does it for this week. I hope by the time your playoffs roll around, you’ve memorized this article and have set yourself up for success. As always, hit me up on Twitter @Adam15Young and reach out in Discord with more questions.