WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
We may only have five games on the NBA DFS slate Friday, but it does look like a very fun one with a lot of appealing matchups. Three of the five games have totals of over 235 points and hopefully, Stephen Curry doesn’t get so frustrated with a teammate that he whips his mouthguard to get ejected. Let’s talk about the spots that stand out and the one game that is under 225 points for its total but still has some fantastic plays in it.
1. The Pacers allow the seventh-most points in transition
That may not come as a big shock since they are fifth in pace and 21st in defensive rating, but it’s still bad news for them. They host the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo is leading the league in points scored in transition at 9.3. He’s also fifth in rebound chances per game at 18.9 and the Pacers are 26th against rebounders, according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool. Giannis has recently missed a few games, but he’s now played 27 and 31 minutes in the past two games. The minutes are not as large of a concern, especially when this is a matchup that can produce close to 2.00 points per minute.
2. The Memphis Grizzlies are 23rd in opponent rebounds allowed per game
They travel to Minnesota to face one of the best rebounders in the league, Rudy Gobert. He has now scored over 40.0 DK points in his past two games. While Gobert is listed as questionable, he’s played 36 and 34 minutes in the past two games while inexplicably, his salary has dropped $400. I would suspect that Gorbert is going to be a popular option tonight and that’s a little scary since he can be unreliable on the offensive end but he’s second in the league in rebound chances per game. The Grizzlies are fifth against rim protectors, but the loss of Steven Adams changes their paint defense in a big way. Gobert is producing 1.06 points per minute and is cheaper than he should be in this matchup.
3. Jimmy Butler Is $7,600 on DK
This matchup between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat is the odd game out, at least as far as the total. It’s only at 219.5 points and Miami is an eight-point favorite, while they are also 28th in pace. Orlando is only 19th so this isn’t a game that screams it will get up and down, so I’m not interested in a lot of players from the game. However, we just don’t see Butler at this salary, and he has scored 1.21 points per minute. Butler is also driving to the basket 13.3 times per game and scoring 7.5 points per game from that play. He also generates 2.6 free throw attempts from that play while Orlando is 21st against primary ball handlers and scorers. Butler is going to have a game where he scores 45.0 DK points or more at this salary and we’re going to wonder why we didn’t play him all over our lineups.
4. Evan Mobley averages over 38.0 DK points per game without Donovan Mitchell
I will say that the Oklahoma City Thunder opened up as favorites against the Cavaliers, which sends a bit of a red flag as far as who is going to be active for Cleveland. Having said that, I would fully suspect Donovan Mitchell will be out and that has been a big boost for Mobley, illustrated by the FTN Splits Tool —
Mobley averages 1.09 points per minute and the Thunder are third in pace, in addition to just 25th against rebounders. It’s not going to be a hot take, but Mobley is likely going to be my favorite play on the entire slate provided Cleveland plays their normal rotation players tonight and I’ll just eat the chalk.
5. The Raptors allow the third-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance
They are also seventh in frequency allowed, which is not the best aspect of a defense that is heading to the West Coast to face the Warriors. They just happen to boast two of the best 3-point shooters that we’ve ever seen in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. It’s been a minute since I’ve played Thompson since he was very expensive since Curry was out for a handful of games, but that might change. Thompson is down to $6,500 and he’s averaging 1.01 points per minute, but he is also shooting 39.2% from beyond the arc this season with over 10 attempts per game. With the Toronto defense giving up the 3-point production they are this year, Thompson can hammer this salary if the shot is working.
