Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
There are only three games in the NBA Tuesday, and the most appealing matchup on the board for DFS might just be the Utah Jazz hosting the Sacramento Kings, not something I would have thought possible at the start of the season. Let’s get cracking and try to find our favorite plays of the night to build some winning lineups.
1. Robert Williams is scoring 1.15 points per minute
The sample size is only 132 minutes this season, and Williams is still finding his footing. That can cause some down games like the last one, but also he’s still flashing his big-time talent, as he did when he scored 36.25 DK points three games ago. The minutes are going to still hover around 18-22 but now he’s down to $4,200 and faces an interior that has been pushed around, ranking 25th in points per game allowed in the paint. The Thunder are also just dead last in rebounds allowed per game and points per game allowed via the put-back. Willims is already 14th in that metric and is shooting 80.0% and 1.4 field goals attempted per game, which can certainly grow with the minutes. He burned us in the last game but I’m right back to him.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has shot horribly in the past two games
I have a feeling he might not be super popular in the context of three games. Josh Giddey is playing well and Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off two terrible games. He’s shot just 15-of-38 in those games and there are virtually no high-salaried players that can get it done with that shooting rate. It’s also far away from his 49.9% field goal rate on the season. Gilgeous-Alexander takes a good bump in his usage rate (36.0%) and points per minute (1.61) when Aleksej Pokusevski and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are off the court. Boston is seventh in points per game allowed in the paint and that could make things a little difficult for how much he drives to the hoop. He’s led the league since basically Day 1 of the season in drives per game at 24.4 times and Ja Morant is second at 21.2. That’s a large gap and Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 16.3 of his 30.8 points per game from the drive. I’ll be interested to see where the field lands on him but he could be a strong leverage play as the Celtics are 18th against primary ball handlers and 21st against superstars.
3. Rui Hachimura is $4,500 on DK
He likely should have been more expensive since he’s starting to find his groove for the Wizards after missing a chunk of the season so far. Hachimura has only played in 22 games but he’s now played at least 27 minutes in four of the past five games, capping it at 32 minutes in the past game against the Bucks. He gets a repeat tonight and Giannis is in the lineup for Milwaukee this time around, which makes life more difficult. Still, the Bucks are just 16th against scorers and Hachimura is now at a 23.9% usage rate and he’s scored at least 25.25 DK points in four of the past five games. The salary makes a lot of sense given the possible outcomes but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pretty chalky.
4. The Utah Jazz are 30th in points per game allowed in the paint
That likely helped Domantas Sabonis not miss a field goal in their matchup two games ago, and the Kings are also playing at the fourth-highest pace. The Jazz are going to match that at 12th in pace and that’s driving this total over 240 points, which means we need to get exposure to it. Sabonis is scoring 1.37 points per minute while he’s also sixth in paint touches and eighth in points scored in the paint. His assist numbers could take a bit of a hit if Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk sit out (both are questionable), but he would be almost forced to be even more aggressive with his shot.
5. Lauri Markkanen is scoring 1.20 points per minute without Collin Sexton
The veteran guard is going to miss a week of action with a hamstring issue, and Markkanen does see a small bump in usage rate and points per minute. It’s nothing large, but every little bit helps with his salary and the Kings are 24th against shooters. Sacramento also allows the sixth-highest points per possession to spot-up shooters while Markkanen is eighth in points per game. In the last matchup, the Kings had no real answers for him as he got to wherever he wanted on the floor and scored 36 real points. He just had an odd game with five rebounds and zero assists, a feat that likely doesn’t replicate here.
