College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture.
These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. 44.2%
Every single stat for Jacob deGrom is a headliner. 44.2% is his baseline K rate, but his 2% BB rate and 1.57 SIERA are just as impressive. The guy is historically good.
His 34.3 projected DK points in the Strikeout Model are comically high, so just lock him in and figure out the rest from there.
2. 93.2
Justin Dunn has allowed an average exit velocity of 93.2 mph. For context, since the start of last season, Shohei Ohtani and Rafael Devers are tied for 4th in exit velocity… at 93.2 mph.
Dunn has also allowed a 14.3% barrel rate and 51.2% hard-hit rate. The Phillies should destroy him, and all nine batters are viable. I will continue to play Matt Vierling at every opportunity, as he’s second on the Phillies with a 91.8 mph average exit velocity.
3. 45.8%
Every now and then we see a pitcher with contradictory recent numbers. Lance Lynn fits that bill. Over the last 30 days, his CSW has jumped to 28.2%, up from 25.4%. However, he’s allowed a 45.8% hard-hit rate and a 10.4% barrel rate in the same timeframe. The Orioles have some serious upside as a contrarian stack, but this also means Lynn is viable as a salary-saving pitcher, especially since Camden Yards is now one of the worst stadiums for HRs.
4. 24.1%
Jameson Taillon is projected as semi-chalk despite a lowly 24.1% CSW over the last 30 days. The matchup with Oakland is certainly a positive, but I question Taillon’s K upside on a slate where deGrom and Aaron Nola should be able to put up points in bunches at the top.
5. .215
When looking for contrarian offenses, I like to look at bullpens. Oakland’s has allowed a .215 ISO to left-handed hitters over the last 30 days. Aaron Judge is always popular, but give me Anthony Rizzo and Andrew Benintendi, as well. Rizzo in particular should come at minuscule rostership.
6. 2.98
It’s about time we discuss Aaron Nola. His baseline SIERA is now an excellent 2.98. If not for deGrom’s ridiculous projections, Nola’s 22.7 projected DK points would stand well clear of the rest of the field, as would his 56% chance of at least 20 DK points. If you can find contrarian enough stacks, there’s no reason to deviate from a deGrom/Nola pairing.
7. 27.8%
Kevin Gausman’s 27.8% K rate is third on the slate and closer to Nola’s 29.6% than fourth place is to him. He’s third in projected K’s on the slate, as well, so I do like him as a pivot off of Aaron Nola if you feel as though your stacks are too chalky for a deGrom/Nola pairing.
