Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It can be hard to prep for fantasy football during training camp and the preseason. Things happen every day that might be a huge deal for fantasy … or might be no deal at all. Sometimes we can figure it out, but sometimes it’s just a matter of paying attention to what happens to know what might matter just so things don’t slip through the cracks.
So each day in this space, we’ll take a trip through the top news and takeaways around the league’s training camps to offer up what fantasy managers need to know as we head through draft season and into the 2022 NFL regular season.
Jaylen Warren Appears to be Pittsburgh’s No. 2 RB
According to Dale Lolley of DK Pittsburgh Sports, Jaylen Warren has appeared to pass Benny Snell on the Steelers depth chart as the backup running back to Najee Harris. Warren has put together an impressive training camp, and that carried over into the Steelers first preseason game where he caught all four of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. There have been some reports that the Steelers will dial back Harris’ playing time a little bit — it won’t be to the point where Warren will get enough work to warrant flex consideration, as we know the Steelers have wanted to feature one running back for years. So if Harris misses any time this season, it looks like Warren would be next in line for carries, which means he should be added in dynasty leagues.
Irv Smith is on Track to Play Week 1
According to Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, tight end Irv Smith (thumb) is on track to play in Week 1. Smith had surgery on his thumb but should be back for Minnesota’s opening game. Smith missed all of last season with a torn meniscus, but if you remember back in 2020, he was very good to end the year. Kyle Rudolph was sidelined Weeks 14-17, and during that span, Smith was the TE4 in fantasy, averaging just under 13 fantasy points per game. He also ranked second among all tight ends in end zone targets during that span with four, while Smith ran a route on nearly 89% of Minnesota’s passing snaps. He was also eighth among all tight ends in routes run during that four-game stretch, despite only playing around half the snaps in Week 14. Smith can make a ton of huge plays, as his 2020 yards per target (8.49) and yards per reception (12.17) marks suggest.
James Robinson Expected to be Back Week 1
James Robinson has been taking on more work during training camp. and head coach Doug Pederson said the team expects him to be ready for Week 1. It’ll be interesting to see what the usage in the Jacksonville backfield looks like with both Robinson and Travis Etienne active, something we didn’t see last season. It is possible this news pushes Etienne’s ADP down a bit and even with Robinson active, there is still a tremendous ceiling, especially in the passing game.
The Buffalo Bills Backfield Could Become a Committee?
The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia suggests Buffalo’s backfield could eventually become a three-way committee at some point this season. Zack Moss has looked good this preseason and, unlike last season, is healthy, while Devin Singletary will at least open the season as the starter. The Bills also have James Cook, who is a dynamic pass-catching running back but has struggled a bit in pass protection so far in training camp. From Week 12 on last year, Singletary ranked seventh among all running backs in both carries (105) and rushing yards (455). During that span, he also scored the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league (5), while his 29 red zone carries were good for third-most in football. Singletary posted a 74% snap share during the final seven weeks, while logging a total of 128 snaps during that stretch, the sixth-most among running backs. If Moss is more involved than expected, this could be a tough situation for fantasy.
Kadarius Toney Won’t Play Sunday
Kadarius Toney hasn’t practiced much during training camp due to injury and will not play in the Giants’ preseason game Sunday. However, he’s been doing more drills in practice as of late and appears to be trending in the right direction. Toney has all the talent in the world and showed it last season as a rookie. Among all qualified receivers from last season, Toney ranked 11th in yards per route run (2.14) and showed the ability to win against both press and man coverage. He just needs to stay healthy.
