Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
For all intents and purposes, we will be talking about two rookie running backs today in Breece Hall and Travis Etienne. Obviously Etienne isn’t technically a rookie, but since he missed all of 2021, the same basic evaluation applies. Both players are in middling offenses that have a second running back slated to see meaningful touches, making this a very interesting debate.
Let’s take a closer look at which one you should target in fantasy drafts for 2022.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Case for Etienne
A foot injury kept Travis Etienne sidelined for his entire rookie season, but he’s back and ready to play a huge role in this Jacksonville offense. When we last saw Etienne at Clemson, he was one of the best running backs in all of college football. During his final season at school, Etienne ranked third among FBS running backs in yards per route run (2.26), while racking up nearly 700 yards after contact. He is an explosive running back, recording nearly 100 rushes of 15 yards or more over the course of his collegiate career, but where he could really make a huge impact in fantasy is in the passing game. Of course, Etienne played alongside Trevor Lawrence in college, so having that connection already intact is certainly a plus. While Jacksonville did add Christian Kirk and Zay Jones at wide receiver this offseason, I still fully expect Lawrence to look Etienne’s way early and often. This past season, according to PFF, Lawrence checked the ball down 11% of the time, one of the highest rates in the NFL and well above the league average rate of 6%. Etienne, meanwhile, emerged as a tremendous pass-catching running back during his final two seasons in college, hauling in nearly 90 passes during that span.
Outside of his obvious rapport with Lawrence, Etienne makes for a great fit in Doug Pederson’s offense. 112 of his 166 rushing attempts came out of zone sets that season, while he also played alongside Lawrence in Clemson’s RPO-based offense, which makes him an ideal fit for what Pederson wants to do in year one with the Jaguars. Back in the 2019 season with the Eagles under Pederson, Carson Wentz ranked sixth in RPO plays (64) and pass attempts (51). And back in 2018, Wentz was fourth and third in plays and pass attempts out of RPO (79, 68). We have also seen Pederson implement a West Coast offense, which he picked up from coaching alongside Andy Reid. With that said, Pederson’s offenses have leaned more toward the pass than the run. During his time with Philadelphia, the Eagles ranked eighth, 20th, seventh, 24th and 16th in passing rate. And over his final three seasons with the team, Pederson has been well above the league average in terms of passing rate. Last season, the Jaguars were 16th in the league in neutral script passing rate (56.5%), while also only ranking 21st in passing rate when trailing by eight or more points (68.5%). Etienne has legitimate 60- to 70-catch upside this season.
The Case Against Etienne
Of course, Etienne will have company in the Jacksonville backfield. James Robinson is coming off an Achilles injury, but Pederson recently stated that the team expects Robinson to be ready for Week 1. As long as he’s healthy, Robinson will handle the early downs, at least to start the season, which will limit Etienne’s ceiling in terms of touches. Robinson is also likely to operate as the short-yardage/goal-line running back, which hurts Etienne’s touchdown upside.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
The Case for Hall
Breece Hall saw a massive workload during his time at Iowa State, recording the most total touches in college football over the last two seasons, while accumulating 718 attempts over the last three years. Hall was 10th in the nation in missed tackles forced last year (76) and put together a stellar combine, running a 4.39-second 40. He should be a good scheme fit, as nearly 70% of his 2021 carries were out of zone-blocking schemes, while we know Mike LaFleur, who comes from the San Francisco scheme, is going to continue implementing a wide-zone scheme. He’s been working alongside Kyle Shanahan for years, operating as San Francisco’s passing game coordinator 2019-2020 and as an offensive assistant in Atlanta in 2015-2016. As a rookie, Michael Carter started 11 games last season. 89 of his 170 rushing attempts came out of zone schemes (52.3%), while his 39 outside runs tied for the 13th most among all running backs, despite missing three games. In 2020, the Jets were a man-to-man blocking unit, but that changed this past season. The strength of this offensive line is a wide zone-blocking scheme, which will continue in 2022. Center Connor McGovern graded out as PFF’s No. 17 run-blocking offensive lineman out of zone schemes, while the team also added Laken Tomlinson during free agency, who is extremely familiar with this offensive system. Tomlinson spent five seasons with the 49ers and is coming off a Pro Bowl campaign in 2021. And in that season, he was PFF’s 12th-best run-blocking guard out of zone.
The Case Against Hall
Like Etienne, Hall also doesn’t have the entire backfield to himself. The Jets are still going to give Michael Carter plenty of run, especially after a successful rookie season where he finished 11th among qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.37) and 12th in missed tackles forced (39). It is very likely that Hall emerges as the lead back by the second half of the season, which is a trend we see from rookie running backs, but it could lead to him getting off to a bit of a slow start. And while Hall is a very capable pass-catcher, it is difficult to project him having a larger role in the passing game than Carter at the moment.
The Verdict: Breece Hall
This is incredibly close, as they are the Nos. 18 and 19 running backs in my rankings. While I love Etienne’s upside in PPR formats, I think Hall has a better chance of consistently seeing both solid pass-catching work and all of the goal-line work in the Jets offense. Both players are in offenses that, at their ceiling, will be league average this season, though Hall is more likely to see goal line work, and is definitely more likely to see 20-plus touches per game. Both players, however, have top-12 ceilings and make for high-upside No. 2 running backs in fantasy.
