Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced.
Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Friday’s MLB DFS slate.
1. 14.9%, 2.16
This is Keegan Thompson’s K% and HR/9, respectively, on the road, which does not bode well for a trip to Dodger Stadium against a Dodger team that is on the verge of breaking out of a cold streak. If you don’t strike out the Dodgers and allow a bunch of home runs, you’re going to have a bad time. We got absolutely crushed Wednesday when the Dodgers put up a complete dud against José Ureña, and they showed signs of life last night against Mark Leiter Jr. (including a Mookie Betts double-dong performance), but perhaps Friday night is the night that they really break out. Beyond just Thompson’s road struggles, the Cubs bullpen is not great and will struggle if forced into a high volume of work.
2. 5.7%
This is Zack Wheeler’s barrel rate thus far this season, which is extremely low, and he’ll take this feather in his cap into his matchup with the struggling Cardinals, who just allowed 12 K’s to Spencer Strider. Wheeler obviously doesn’t have quite the strikeout rate that Strider has displayed in his short time in the big leagues (almost no one does), but this is a matchup in which Wheeler should have plenty of success. It is more about having a sustained performance with Wheeler and lasting well into the 7th and 8th innings, picking up Ks along the way, but given the low barrel rate allowed, overall low BB% (only 5%), and the Cardinals general struggles, I’m expecting good things from Wheeler, and even though he is the second-most expensive pitcher on the slate, he should be well worth the price.
3. 14
This is the number of strikeouts Reid Detmers put up in his lone AAA start. He clearly did not take his being optioned to AAA lightly and is out for blood. He also gets a matchup with the Orioles, who have the third-highest K% against LHP. We certainly shouldn’t blindly trust Detmers — he has not shown anywhere near this strikeout ability at the major league level, and while he does have a no-hitter in his list of accomplishments, he was also sent to AAA for his inability to pitch deep into games. Bottom line — Detmers is an extremely high variance option from whom little is to be expected, and things could go very wrong for him (and often have), but on the off chance he figured out something mechanically or was simply reinvigorated by the demotion, he could also end up with a ceiling performance at a very minimal cost.
4. 5/17
That’s not a stat, so much as it is a date, and it is the date on which Chad Kuhl faced the Giants for the second time in the course of a week, and he got absolutely blasted in that matchup. In only 3 innings of work, he allowed 8 hits, 6 runs, and struck out exactly 0, the only time this season he’s failed to strike out a batter. This is significant because Kuhl will be facing the Diamondbacks for the second time in a week, and wasn’t particularly effective against them the first time, with only 2 Ks and 7 hits allowing 5 runs over the course of 5 innings. Might an even more embarrassing shellacking be waiting for Kuhl here? It just might.
5. 16.7%
This is Sonny Gray’s K% on the road, which is extremely low for a pitcher of his caliber. He will likely be popular due to his matchup with the struggling Rangers, but with this split it is going to be tough for him to pay off the third-highest DK price on the slate. While the Rangers are not a particularly intimidating opponent, they also are only middle of the road (13th) in K%, and don’t stand out from a matchup perspective as one that would get particularly strikeout happy against Gray’s offerings, especially in a split in which he already struggles to produce them. While Gray will likely be somewhat popular, I would almost have more interest in his opponent and namesake Jon Gray on the other side of the matchup, as there is far more swing and miss in the Twins lineup.
6. 78.3%
This is José Urquidy’s first-pitch strike percentage in his most recent start against the Angels, which ties his highest FPS% of the season. He was extremely effective in this outing, ending up allowing only 2 hits and a single run along with 8 K’s. When we get this aggressive version of Urquidy, especially in a matchup against a punchless lineup like the one the A’s have, in a forgiving ballpark like the one where the matchup will be taking place, the stars seem to align into fantasy goodness.
His price is a little higher than we would like to see it for a guy who generally has a limited ceiling, but he also has the advantage of being priced very similarly to what will likely be a chalky George Kirby and Lucas Giolito, so not only is he in a great matchup and environment, he’s also a great leverage opportunity.
7. 81.5
Speaking of one our chalky options, this was Lucas Giolito’s average exit velocity in his last start, which was a season low, against a Giants squad that is analytically designed and typically maximizes platoon advantages (but is actually generally a middle of the pack team with regard to exit velocity). He also put up 7 Ks in that game, so if he can build on this performance of both missing bats and inducing soft contact, we may see the Giolito we expected to show up when the season began re-emerge, especially in a juicy matchup like the one he has against the Tigers. Due to the massive price discount we’re getting from his peak pricing, he is unlikely to go overlooked by many.
