Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today: Wide receivers to avoid in fantasy in 2022.
This week, we are turning our attention to wide receivers. Although there is a lot of depth at the position when it comes to fantasy football, it’s still important to hit on your early picks. Missing on one player is not a league-losing move, but it definitely can make your season that much harder. With that in mind make sure to do your pre-draft research. To help you with this, I have outlined six wide receivers who I am avoiding in 2022.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson came into his own last season, posting career highs in receptions (107), yards (1,161), and touchdowns (8). This was thanks in part to much-improved hands, as per the FTN Fantasy advanced receiving stats, his drop rate went from 13.6% to 5.7% year over year. He also set career highs in YAC (547 yards) and yards per route run (1.8). He finished as a WR1 for the first time, WR8 in PPR formats.
All of that said, 2022 could be a different story. He no longer has future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the ball, replaced by some combination of free agent signee Mitch Trubisky and rookie first-rounder Kenny Pickett. And while it’s true that late-career Roethlisberger was a shadow of his former self, Johnson was still far and away his favorite weapon, to the tune of 169 targets last year that was topped by only Cooper Kupp. There’s a decent chance the Trubisky/Pickett combo struggles in 2022 as neither is a sure thing, but even if one or both exceeds expectations, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the ball spread around a bit more. On top of that, Johnson thrives after the catch — among all 34 receivers with 100-plus targets, his 8.37-yard aDOT was sixth lowest and his 46.9% percentage of yards coming after the catch was fourth highest. If Trubisky/Pickett can’t get him the ball as easily as Roethlisberger, his production could fall off in a big way.
On top of that, Johnson now has to contend with more targets for 2021 rookie TE Pat Freiermuth (especially in the red zone) and rookie wide receivers second-rounder George Pickens and fourth-rounder Calvin Austin, and all of a sudden there are plenty of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh. And then there’s the risk that a slightly improved offensive line and a year of work for Najee Harris cause the Steelers to pass less (they called pass 699 times last year, third most in the league), and Johnson’s workload could be dropping, more in line to somewhere between his finishes in 2020 (WR21) and 2019 (WR39). That would be a big letdown for fantasy managers who draft him at his current ADP (WR14).
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
After three-and-a-half seasons, the Cowboys made a business decision this offseason and traded away one of their best receivers in Amari Cooper. He landed with the Browns, who had a glaring need for a top wide receiver after cutting ties with Odell Beckham last season and releasing Jarvis Landry early in the offseason. Days later, they made another huge trade to bring in Deshaun Watson, sending three first-round picks and more to the Texans. This would normally be a huge boost for Cooper, were it not for the fact that a suspension is likely coming for Watson — and likely a lengthy one. Suddenly, Cooper is a 28-year-old receiver who fell short of 1,000 yards last year for the first time since 2017, and he’s going from Dak Prescott as his quarterback to what appears to be extended run — possibly a full season — with Jacoby Brissett. Cooper’s fantasy value in 2021 was buoyed by a career-high-tying 8 touchdowns — his yards after the catch dropped by almost 200, going from 422 in 2020 to 237 in 2021, per the FTN Fantasy advanced receiving stats.
Now he’s on the Browns with Brissett. This is a team that likes to run the ball — they threw the ball 127 fewer times than the Cowboys last year — and with Brissett at the helm, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Cooper struggle to crack 1,000 yards once again. And with a team that leans on the run game in the red zone, his touchdowns will likely drop off as well.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Before his Week 15 ACL injury last year, Chris Godwin was having a big year with Tom Brady — Godwin entered Week 14 as the WR6, Brady the QB2. Godwin was averaging 17.8 PPR points on 9.2 targets per game. Even missing three games, Godwin comfortably led last year’s Buccaneers in red-zone targets with 26 (Mike Evans had 19). He was clearly in Brady’s good graces, leading the team with 111 first-read targets. That all led Godwin to five games of 20-plus PPR points — only eight players (including Evans) had more.
That’s all the good stuff. But that all came before the aforementioned ACL tear, which is obviously the biggest concern surrounding Godwin for 2022. The Buccaneers have already said they will take their time with his recovery, bringing in Russell Gage to fill in for Godwin until he is back. If he starts the season on PUP, he’ll miss at least the first four weeks (down from six, a rule change this year), but there’s also a scenario where the team is dominating what could be a weak division and holds Godwin out — or at least doesn’t fully unleash him — until after the Week 11 bye so as to have him close to 100% for the playoffs. Despite the clear injury concerns, Godwin is still going off the board as WR21 in drafts, way too high for such a risky player.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown exploded down the stretch of last season, averaging 25.2 PPR points per game from Week 13 to the end of the year, second only to Cooper Kupp’s 27.1. That hot stretch helped St. Brown finish as the WR21 for the full season, held in check by his WR62 ranking before things turned around. He led the Lions in receiving yards (912), receiving touchdowns (5), first-read targets (99) and red-zone targets (15). Remember, though, that 67 of his 119 targets, 621 of his 973 scrimmage yards, and all six of his touchdowns (counting one on the ground) came in that hot end-of-season stretch, and that was mostly done without T.J. Hockenson (played in one of those six games) and D’Andre Swift (two). Both carried large target shares when active and will likely do so again. And then the Lions re-signed Josh Reynolds, signed DJ Chark and drafted Jameson Williams this offseason.
The Lions offense as a whole should see a bump in 2022 with all the new arrivals and big names getting healthy. That means St. Brown is unlikely to average more than 10 targets a game over a stretch like he did last year. With so many mouths to feed in Detroit, St. Brown is a hard player to draft at his current WR22 ADP (ahead of names like Marquise Brown and Courtland Sutton). Drafting him there is likely drafting him at his ceiling.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets
Elijah Moore had a solid stretch of games in the middle of his rookie 2021 season sandwiched between two injuries that forced him to miss six games. After the Jets’ Week 6 bye, Moore was somewhat unleashed — he put up six games of double-digit PPR points over his next seven games (and had 9.3 in the seventh) before getting hurt again. Over that span (Weeks 7-13), he was the WR3 in PPR behind only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson. The hot stretch was cut short by a Week 13 quad injury that ended his season.
So why not buy in on Moore’s hot production? Well, a good chunk of it came without Zach Wilson at quarterback. Wilson played part of Week 7 and then was out until Wee 12, meaning the vast majority of Moore’s nice games came with other quarterbacks tossing him the ball. In the six full games Moore and Wilson played together, Moore had only one game of double-digit fantasy points, a 6-77-1 outing in Week 13. So we aren’t sure the Wilson-Moore connection can be a successful one, and that’s before considering the Jets are getting Corey Davis back healthy and added potentially elite prospects in the draft in WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall — and Hall’s arrival could portend a run-heavier approach in 2022. At a current ADP of WR29, I am passing on Moore and taking a risk on guys like Treylon Burks or Rashad Bateman, who have just as high of a ceiling and less competition in 2022.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season, Christian Kirk played every game for the first time in his career, en route to a career-high in receiving yards (982) and yards per route run (1.80). It was his second season topping 100 targets, helping him to a WR26 finish in fantasy. Now he’s heading east, joining the Jaguars and an unproven quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who completed only 59% of his passes last year, third worst among 31 QBs with at least 300 dropbacks. Yes, Lawrence could (and likely should) improve in 2022, but there’s a very real chance that even if he does, this offense doesn’t produce a single fantasy-viable receiver, what with the team adding Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram to an offense that already has Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and Laquon Treadwell and getting Travis Etienne — who thrived as a pass-catcher in college — back from an injury that cost him his rookie year. This is a team that scored only 253 points last year (worst in the league and one of only three teams under 300) and averaged only 202 passing yards per game, so it’s not like having a lot of mouths to feed means there will be a lot of different fantasy producers — it means a lot of disappointing players.
