Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Adam Pfeifer and Jeremy Popielarz continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Miami Dolphins.
Adam and Jeremy will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Pfeifer: Tua Tagovailoa
Popielarz: Cedrick Wilson
Bust
Pfeifer: Jaylen Waddle
Popielarz: Tyreek Hill
Boldest Bet
Pfeifer: Jaylen Waddle finishes outside the PPR WR top-20
Popielarz: Chase Edmonds finishes as a top-20 PPR RB
The Explanation
Sleeper
Pfeifer: Tua Tagavailoa
If it doesn’t happen this year for Tua…
Between a more innovative offensive play-caller, improvements to the offensive line and the addition of Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa has all of the pieces a quarterback needs to have success. Tagovailoa now has one of the best receiver duos in football in Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and in new head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense, getting the ball in both players’ hands and letting them make plays will certainly benefit the young signal-caller. It’ll be interesting to see how much more (if at all) Tua attacks vertically, as he actually led all quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in deep completion rate (50%). However, only 6.7% of his pass attempts traveled 20-plus yards, the lowest rate in the NFL. Still, Tua’s surrounding cast is the best it has been by far, which should help him improve on his 0.45 fantasy points per dropbacks from 2021 (19th).
Popielarz: Cedrick Wilson
Last season Cedrick Wilson emerged as a big-play receiver for the Cowboys, which translated into multiple solid fantasy weeks. Over his 16 games, he produced 45 receptions for 602 yards and 6 touchdowns, equaling 147.8 PPR points, and finished as the WR45. He had five double-digit fantasy point weeks and finished as a WR1 once (Week 18) and a WR2 three times (Weeks 8,12, and 17). Looking deeper into the advanced stats (via FTN Advanced Stats), he caught 73% of his passes and was only credited with two drops. He also created 277 yards after the catch, while averaging 6.16 per reception. One of the most impressive things is that he led the Cowboys in passer rating when targeted at 130.6. Now as one of tallest weapons for Tua Tagovailoa, he could emerge as one of his best red-zone targets. Last season, he saw 10 red-zone targets and converted three of them for touchdowns. As the third wide receiver in line for the Dolphins, he could see some softer coverage with defenses keying in on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. As long as this team takes a step forward offensively, we could see Wilson become a consistent enough producer to become a weekly fantasy flex contributor.
Bust
Pfeifer: Jaylen Waddle
While Tagovailoa could certainly have a breakout season, it doesn’t exactly mean I love Waddle this season. He should be ranked as a top-24 fantasy receiver entering the season, but coming off the board as the WR15 is a bit rich for me. Waddle’s 104 receptions were the most for a receiver in their rookie season in NFL history. After making a ton of splash plays at Alabama, Waddle’s role changed in Miami, as he was used much closer to the line of scrimmage, as Tagovailoa simply force-fed him with high-percentage targets. His aDOT in college was 11.7, but as the clear top option in the passing game in Miami, that number fell to 6.92, which was the 12th-lowest mark among all receivers with at least 50 targets. Of course, the volume was great, as Waddle saw a 24.8% target share, while his 124 targets as the first read were the ninth-most among all receivers. However, those numbers are going to come way down with Hill in Miami, so if the downfield targets don’t improve, it’ll be tough for Waddle to finish as a top-15 receiver.
Popielarz: Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill has become an elite fantasy asset who has been so consistent for his managers. However, he has been tied to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid his whole career. In his first season without them, we will see a huge dip in production. Over the five seasons in which he played every game, he averaged 124 targets and 6 rushing attempts en route to four WR1 finishes (only two seasons he missed were his rookie season and a 12-game injury season). He did all of this with only Travis Kelce as his only true competition for targets. Now in Miami, he has to deal with 2021 rookie standout Waddle, Cedrick Wilson and Mike Gesicki. Both Waddle and Geskici accounted for over 253 targets (41% of the Dolphins’ 613 targets), and something will have to change in order for Hill to see over 100 targets. With a new head coach in Mike McDaniel, it’s hard to forecast what the Dolphins offense will look like, but we can expect it to favor the run game due to his 49ers background. This will ultimately result in a reduction in targets for Hill. Paired with the fact that he is now on a less explosive offense, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him finish outside of the top 12 in 2022.
Bet
Pfeifer: Jaylen Waddle finishes outside the PPR WR top-20
Many have Waddle ranked as a safe top-20 fantasy wide receiver, but he is closer to 25 than 20 for me. I worry about the upside with Hill in Miami, while we still have question marks surrounding Tagovailoa. I prefer players like Allen Robinson, Michael Pittman, Courtland Sutton and Brandin Cooks over the sophomore stud, which is terrifying considering how damn good Waddle is.
Popielarz: Chase Edmonds finishes as a top-20 PPR RB
Chase Edmonds has left fantasy managers clamoring for more year after year. However, this is the year he delivers. Edmonds was the main target for the Dolphins staff this offseason and was brought in to be their lead back in large part due to his ability to run the wide-zone scheme they plan to implement. Over the past two seasons, he has been a large part of the Cardinals offense, totaling 1,040 rushing yards, 713 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. However, he has never finished inside the top 24 in season-long PPR scoring. But last season, he produced six RB2 weeks and one RB1 week. Now in Miami, he should be the key part of the passing game, something he has always done his whole career (128 receptions, 921 yards, 5 touchdowns). He will also have a large role in the run game, even with Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel and Myles Gaskin in the picture. With this increased workload, there will be a huge opportunity to produce a ton of fantasy points on a consistent weekly basis. He will produce the top-20 finish that all us fantasy managers have been thirsty for.
