Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The third round of a fantasy football draft can kind of be your make-or-break round, especially when it comes to wide receiver. If you’re taking a wide receiver in the third, either you went RB early – which means you really need to nail your receiver pick – or you went WR early and are kind of punting running back – which means you need whatever receiver you’re taking over a running back to make it worth your while. With all that pressure, it makes sense to take the time to make sure you’re picking exactly the right guy in that range. That’s our task today.
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with a look at Michael Pittman of the Colts and Diontae Johnson of the Steelers.
Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
The Case for Pittman
After showing some signs as a rookie in 2020, Pittman enjoyed a solid breakout sophomore campaign last year, hauling in 88 balls for nearly 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. Pittman was the clear top target in the Colts passing game last season, as he saw 129 targets, the 16th most in the NFL. He was so clearly ahead of every other pass-catcher on the team that Pittman was responsible for a whopping 27% of Indianapolis’ total receptions. Only two players in all of football sported a higher percentage of team’s receptions — Cooper Kupp (35%) and Davante Adams (30%). That is elite company for Pittman in terms of volume, and entering his third season, I don’t expect much to change. His only competition for targets is a rookie in Alec Pierce, Parris Campbell (who hasn’t been able to stay healthy) and pass-catching running back Nyheim Hines. A 25% target share is easily repeatable this season, if not surpassable. He also saw 30% of the Colts receiving yards (sixth) and 27% of the team’s first-read targets (13th). The volume should continue in 2022 with Matt Ryan under center for the Colts, as Ryan has hyper-targeted his top wideouts over the course of his career. Granted, he has been on the same team as Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley, but from 2016 to 2020, the No. 1 receiver alongside Ryan has averaged just over 149 targets per season.
Heading into the 2022 season, Pittman has some changes surrounding him that will elevate his game. He still posted very strong numbers alongside Carson Wentz, who wasn’t awful last season but really relied on jump balls and contested passes. In fact, Pittman’s 29 contested targets from a season ago were tied for the eighth-most among all wideouts. However, because Pittman is so talented and has great size (6-foot-4, 223 pounds), he was able to come down with 19 of those 29 contested looks. With Ryan in town and with Pittman entering Year 3, expect to see more schemed targets for the Colts’ top wideout, which should allow him to get back to making plays after the catch. During his rookie season, Pittman averaged 7.3 yards after the catch per reception, the third-highest mark among all qualified receivers. However, that number dropped to just 4.0 this past season because so many of his targets were deep down the field and in contested situations. Pittman’s average depth of target climbed from 8.5 yards to 10 this past season, while his yards before the catch per reception jumped from 5.3 in 2020 to 8.3 last year. That’s a full three-yard difference, which limited what Pittman could do after the catch. There will still be a handful of shots down the field headed Pittman’s way, but I expect a better variety of targets in his third season, which could also make him a more consistent player in fantasy football.
The Case Against Pittman
While Pittman is going to dominate his team in targets, the Colts are still going to be a run-first offense behind a strong offensive line and arguably the game’s best running back in Jonathan Taylor. The Colts finished fifth overall in rush rate this past season (47.4%), while Indianapolis was one of the slowest teams in football. Only the Packers averaged more seconds per snap (29.3), while the Colts ran no-huddle just 4.28% of the time, which was the fifth-lowest rate in the league. And because this offense will continue to revolve around Taylor and the running game, Pittman’s touchdown ceiling may not be that high. Last season, Pittman saw just seven end-zone targets, which placed him just inside the top-50 players in football.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Case for Johnson
Over the last two seasons, Diontae Johnson has emerged as a top-tier fantasy football wide receiver, finishing as the WR8 and WR21 during that span. Johnson has shown tremendous ability to create separation, which has helped him see an insane amount of volume over the past two years. In 2021, Johnson saw 170 targets, the second-most in all of football, while he was the first-read on a whopping 147 of those looks, tied for the third-most in the league. And back in 2020, only Allen Robinson saw more first-read targets than Johnson’s 112. Because Ben Roethlisberger had zero ability or willingness to throw the football down the field, Johnson was clearly the top target in the Steelers passing game. Johnson has seen double-digit targets in an insane 22-of-31 regular-season contests over the last two years, and that number is even more impressive when you consider there were a few games when he left early or didn’t play a full allotment of snaps.
The Case Against Johnson
While Johnson has been one of the busiest wideouts in football lately, it hasn’t exactly led to tremendous efficiency. There has been essentially zero downfield work for Johnson, who is sporting the third-lowest yards per target mark among qualified receivers over the last two seasons (6.64). And during that same span, Johnson has posted the 11th-lowest average depth of target in both seasons (8.37, 7.81). His 6.9 yards per target from last season ranked outside the top-50 wide receivers in all of football, while only Cooper Kupp saw more targets of the short variety (0-9 yards) than Johnson (88). Given his tremendous ability to run routes and create separation, Johnson certainly projects to lead the Steelers in targets again in 2022, but the distribution could be different with Roethlisberger gone. Pittsburgh has added Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett to play quarterback, and while the Steelers certainly don’t have a top-20 quarterback on their roster, we did see Allen Robinson catch 102 balls for 1,250 yards alongside Trubisky in Chicago in 2020. And like Johnson, that was off insane volume (150 targets), but this Steelers team has plenty of talent at wide receiver in Chase Claypool, George Pickens and Calvin Austin, while Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth will also be plenty involved. Because the efficiency hasn’t been great, a decent drop in volume could really keep Johnson from finishing as a WR1 once again.
The Verdict: Michael Pittman
For a while, I actually had Johnson ranked ahead of Pittman, but I just recently made the change. Pittman could easily see the same, if not more, number of targets as Johnson this season, while he’ll present more downfield potential. His competition for targets is also way less concerning than it is for Johnson, while Pittman also gets the nod when it comes to quarterback play. Entering his third season, I don’t think we’ve seen the best from Pittman just yet, while Johnson has already likely reached his ceiling.
