Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
FTN’s very own Jeff Ratcliffe dropped his first-round 2022 NFL mock draft Monday. Obviously, who goes where throughout the entire draft goes a long way to shaping the league, but today we’re here to focus on the fantasy football side of things. Using Jeff’s mock, we can start to imagine what some of these players’ futures could look like.
Matching them up with a team allows us to analyze what that could mean for their fantasy value. Along with this we can also predict what their impact will have on the rest of the teams’ fantasy values. This is a great practice for us to gain some clarity on what could be for 2022 and beyond.
2022 NFL Mock Draft: Fantasy Landing Spots in Round 1
Below, we’ll take a look at Jeff’s landing spots for each fantasy name in the first round and what the fallout would be.
Malik Willis, QB (Landing spot: Carolina Panthers, Pick 6)
This is an upgrade all around for the Panthers. Malik Willis himself could have a solid fantasy rookie season, similar to what we saw from Jalen Hurts. The rushing floor he will possess gives him a safe fantasy value. This is if he gets named the Day One starter. As a passer however he is underdeveloped, and this will have an effect on the passing game. That means we could see some lower numbers for players like DJ Moore or Robby Anderson. Although he is raw, Willis could definitely be an upgrade on Sam Darnold in the long run. It may be a hard road in year one, but the future would be bright in Carolina for everyone’s fantasy value.
Garrett Wilson, WR (Landing spot: Atlanta Falcons, Pick 8)
This spot would be huge for Garrett Wilson and the Falcons. Atlanta has a clear need for a top wide receiver, and Wilson can be that for them. He can come in Day One and be a great separator at the NFL level, while also bringing some physicality and sure hands and giving new quarterback Marcus Mariota a great playmaker on the outside. This would ideally result in high-end fantasy potential due to the large target share he will receive. A top-24 finish should be expected. Along with this there will be a boost in Mariota’s value as well. It should also have a great effect on Kyle Pitts, as teams will not be able to key in on him. Overall, this landing spot would be a boost for all parties.
Kenny Pickett, QB (Landing spot: New Orleans Saints, Pick 16)
This is a nice fit for the Saints, as they get a player who can step in Day One and start if needed. Of course, with Jameis Winston retained as he recovers from a torn ACL, the question is whether Kenny Pickett would start from Day 1. If so, he will have a top wide receiver in Michael Thomas, who will see a majority target share, giving him the chance to return to his top form. Pairing these two play styles will be a nice match — Pickett will be able to get the ball out quickly to the sure-handed Thomas. Along with this he will have the help of top-notch running back Alvin Kamara, who is a great asset out of the backfield. He can create extra yardage in the blink of an eye. Those two (and another player picked to land in New Orleans below) would give Pickett a great opportunity to reach his peak as a fantasy asset early in his career.
Drake London, WR (Landing spot: Philadelphia Eagles, Pick 18)
This fit may not be the best for Drake London. Jalen Hurts shined at times in his first year as the full-time starter, but he also struggled at times. As a quarterback who likes to limit mistakes, he did not always love to throw the contested ball. Due to this, and the fact that contested catchers are something London excelled at in college, the rookie receiver’s upside could be limited. If Hurts improves in this area this year, though, it could work out. London is a great complement to DeVonta Smith, so pairing the two could help both of them reach their potential.
Chris Olave, WR (Landing spot: New Orleans Saints, Pick 19)
This is a great fit for Chris Olave, as he would be able to step in on Day One and be a playmaker alongside the aforementioned Thomas. Olave is arguably the most polished wide receiver in this class. His speed and deep threat ability would be a great addition to the Saints offense. He also has similar traits to Jordan Addison, who Pickett worked so well with at Pittsburgh. They will be able to form a connection early on helping each other grow. This could be a long-term connection you would want to buy into in dynasty.
Desmond Ridder, QB (Landing spot: Pittsburgh Steelers, Pick 20)
This is a solid fit for both Desmond Ridder and the Steelers. They brought in a free agent quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky who has the capability to start in 2022, but Trubisky certainly isn’t the long-term answer in Pittsburgh. Both Trubisky and Ridder have similar traits on their games, which should allow Trubisky to help Ridder transition to the NFL. The Steelers have a ton of youthful talent at the skill positions that Ridder will have at his disposal upon earning the starting job. This is key for a young quarterback, as we look to find out what his fantasy value could be. Although the fantasy impact may not be felt in Year One, this is a great landing spot in the long-term outlook. He could become a solid top-24 quarterback and a great superflex player.
Jameson Williams, WR (Landing spot: New England Patriots, Pick 21)
The addition of the speedy Jameson Williams to this Patriots offense makes a ton of sense for all parties. Williams’ ability to create after the catch along with his speed should translate to the NFL easily. Due to this he will have an opportunity to seize a large market share early on, or at least as early as his torn ACL lets him see the field. This will help him ascend the wide receiver ranks, making him a great fantasy asset. Producing a similar season to the likes of Jaylen Waddle should not be ruled out. The pick would improve the fantasy stock of Patriots QB Mac Jones as well. Williams’ play style would pair perfectly with the game Jones loves to play, letting the quarterback get the ball out quickly and let Williams create.
Treylon Burks, WR (Landing spot: Arizona Cardinals, Pick 23)
This versatile athlete gets the perfect fit for what he needs to succeed, landing in an offense with a creative play caller along with a young rising star at quarterback. In Year One, he will not be asked to be the guy, playing alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Zach Ertz and second-year receiver Rondale Moore. This will be great for him as he can work on his route-running techniques and improve his overall game as he learns from one of the league’s best in Hopkins. However, he will also have the ability to have some fantasy value as a rookie as possibly the second option in a high-powered offense. This definitely could hurt Moore, though, if they decide to use Burks more in the generated touch role.
Breece Hall, RB (Landing spot: Buffalo Bills, Pick 25)
One of the best fits in this first round, the Bills get the power back they have been searching for. This would be a great fit for Breece Hall’s fantasy value, as he could step in and be the lead guy right away. That would give him RB1 potential as a rookie. His ability to punch the ball in along the goal line will be key to his success. Also, he will have a ton of opportunities on this high-powered offense, along with a possibility of a huge passing-game workload. The one mark on Hall’s fantasy upside in Buffalo would be the rushing prowess of QB Josh Allen. Allen is 10th in the league in rushing scores since he entered the league at 31, most among quarterbacks by 10. Allen had 32 of the Bills’ 108 red-zone rushing attempts last year, and 8 of their 22 inside-the-5 attempts. Hall would likely soak up much of the work that went to Devin Singletary and Zack Moss and probably horn in on some of Allen’s work as well, but the quarterback is still going to be a red-zone threat, lowering Hall’s weekly upside a bit.
Jahan Dotson, WR (Landing spot: Green Bay Packers, Pick 28)
As a solid route runner out of Penn State, Jahan Dotson gets what many would consider a perfect landing spot. It’s hard to see Aaron Rodgers’ value increasing much beyond where it already is, but playing with the future Hall of Famer would be huge for Dotson. There’s a popular narrative out there that Rodgers doesn’t like rookie wide receivers, but there just aren’t many options left in Green Bay. Dotson’s ability to separate and be a technician is something Rodgers will like. If he can win over Rodgers in Year One, it could result in huge fantasy production. However, if he is unable to prove he’s capable we could see an Amari Rodgers-type rookie season — last year’s third-rounder saw only 8 targets as a rookie, catching 4 balls for 45 yards.
Christian Watson, WR (Landing spot: Kansas City Chiefs, Pick 29)
This would be huge for Christian Watson’s fantasy value. He has a ton of the traits also possessed by now-ex Chief Tyreek Hill. Although he is a raw talent who needs to be refined, his upside is huge due to his rare combination of size and speed. Pairing those traits with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid could definitely lead to good things happening. Watson’s versatility will have them calling upon him in all sorts of ways, leading to nice fantasy value. Year One could have a similar look to what Chase Claypool offered in Pittsburgh. And adding Watson to this offense shouldn’t have a huge impact on the rest of the offense when we look at it from a fantasy perspective — JuJu Smith-Schuster and (especially) Travis Kelce should be fine.
Matt Corral, QB (Landing spot: Detroit Lions, Pick 32)
A quarterback with all the raw traits you could ever ask for gets a landing spot that will allow him to develop. He will likely not be asked to be a Day One starter, limiting his fantasy value at the outset. However, Year Two could be huge as the Lions will have the opportunity to add more talent around him and set him up for real success. They can model the offense around an RPO style, allowing him to play to his strengths. Buying into the offensive playmakers this year would be the best strategy before we see a huge jump in 2023 from them with Corral at the helm. This increased passing attack will only help open up the ground game for star running back D’Andre Swift as well, along with opening up more scoring opportunities for the whole offense. The future would be very bright in Detroit from a fantasy perspective if this landing spot happens and Corral develops as the Lions would want.
